诸多沉积记录揭示,中国北方早期历史,气候环境大致经历了 :3580-3050 cal a BP,3050-1800 cal a BP两个阶段;前者为稳定的湿润气候期,后者为逐渐趋于干燥的气候期;前期为中国历史上第二个王朝一商王朝统治期,政局稳定,社会承平,王朝较为稳定地传承了500余年,是中国历史上寿命最长的朝代;后者对应西周一东周(春秋一战国)一秦一西汉一东汉一三国等朝代,在不足1300年内,政权格局多次更迭,表现出一种与前期截然相反的社会政治生态。这期间,以都城为标志的王朝的重心,具有向东南迁移的趋势。年代对比发现,商代夏、周代商、平王东迁、西汉甚至东汉灭亡等改朝换代的社会政治事件,都与沉积记录所指示的气候环境的显著变化(恶化)对应。研究再次证实早期的中国历史与气候变化存在密切的关系,并认为如下两个因素可以阐述这种关系的存在:①中国北方地理环境空间是扇状的,且自然环境具有梯度变化的特征,这种地理环境格局叠加在气候变化之上,具有特殊的加剧与舒缓区域社会矛盾的作用。②小农经济具有对气候变化的特殊敏感性。对西汉所做的案例考察认为,不尽合理的社会体制往往通过一系列反馈作用将这种敏感性在气候恶化阶段放大,随之形成一系列连锁反应,由此造成的各种危机成为王朝崩溃重要因素。
英文摘要:
The early northern China (1600 BC-300 AD) can be divided into two stages roughly: 3600-3050 cal a BP (1600 BC-1050 BC),and 3050-1800 cal a BP (1050 BC-200 AD), which were recorded in many natural sedimentary archives. The former stage, corresponding to the second dynasty - the Shang Dynasty with a time span of more than 500 years, characterized by relatively stable humid climate state, is a historical period with relatively stable political and societal environment; the latter stage, coincident to the transition from the Zhou Dynasty to the Three Kingdoms with gradually becoming dry climate, showed a sharp contrast of political and societal condition to the period during the Shang Dynasty with seven unrests and consequent occurrence of new political regimes within a 1250-year period. And, marked by the relocations of capitals, the centers of these dynasties show a trend of southeastward migration. The correlation of significant climate change (usually cold and/or dry states) and some political unrests, such as, establishment of the Zhou Dynasty, Zhouping King's eastward relocation of capital and perishment of the Western Han Dynasty, was found. These evidences again indicate that there is a certain relationship between evolution of early stage of Chinese history and climate change of Asian monsoon. This paper suggests that the following two factors, neglected in the previous research, greatly influence the correlation between society and climate. First, northern China has fan-shaped geographic space with a sharp ecological gradient for latitudinal zonality and Asian monsoon activity, which accentuates the effects of climate change on regional human society. Second, in China the small-scale self-sufficient economy cell was very sensitive to climate change. And usually, irrational social regime accentuated the sensitivity of small- scale self-sufficient economy cell to climate change through a series of feedbacks within society and resulted in serious consequences, and eventually caused the collapses of dynasties.