globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6043702
论文题名:
利用树轮重建玛纳斯河流域过去289 a降水变化
其他题名: The 289-year Variation of Precipitation Reconstructed with Tree-ring Data in the Manas River Basin
作者: 齐元元1; 尚华明2; 张瑞波2; 魏文寿2; 袁玉江2; 喻树龙2; 张同文2; 陈峰2; 祝小梅1
刊名: 干旱区研究
ISSN: 1001-4675
出版年: 2017
卷: 34, 期:4, 页码:3373-3380
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 树木年轮 ; 降水重建 ; 气候变化 ; 玛纳斯河流域 ; 天山北坡
英文关键词: tree ring ; precipitation reconstruction ; climate change ; Manas River Basin ; northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 利用采自天山北坡中部玛纳斯河流域的树轮样本,建立了玛纳斯河流域合成的区域标准化年表。树轮-气候响应分析表明,玛纳斯河流域树木径向生长的主要限制性因子是上年7月至当年6月降水量。进一步利用该年表重建了玛纳斯河流域过去289 a的降水变化。历史降水变化特征分析表明,过去289 a的降水经历6干6湿的阶段变化,并存在着1810、1823、1824、1885、1910、1944、1945年和1977年8个干旱年;具有2.0 ~ 2.4 a、3.3 ~ 3.8 a、 17.4 a、48.0 a和64.0 a变化准周期,并在1780年前后发生了由少到多的突变,在1807年前后与1830年前后发生了由多到少的突变;重建的过去289 a玛纳斯河流域降水变化与天山山区历史气候变化序列有较好的一致性,并且能够代表新疆北部和中亚大部分区域历史降水变化。
英文摘要: In order to deeply understand the past climate change in the Manas River Basin,in this study the treering cores were collected from four sites in the basin,and they were used to develop four tree-ring width chronologies into the MNS chronology. A transfer function was built to this chronology and the sequence of precipitation from July to next June,the advantage ofleave-one-outwas used to test the reconstruction sequence,the 31-year moving average,standard deviation,running T-test and power spectrum were used to analyze the variations of precipitation, extreme weather,climate mutation,and cycle characteristics of the reconstructed sequence. Main? results? of this? study? were as? follows: Correlation analysis indicated that tree rings were significantly correlated to precipitation from July to next June (r = 0.637,P < 0.000 1). A transfer function was built to reconstruct annual precipitation from July to next June since 1724 A. D. Analysis of precipitation series in the past 289 years (1724-2012 A. D.) showed that there were 6 wet periods and 6 dry periods,and also 8 drought years including 1810, 1823,1824,1885,1910,1944,1945 and 1977; there were the significant periodical cycles of 2.0-2.4,3.3-3.8,17.4,48.0 and 64.0 years; the abrupt change of precipitation occurred in 1780,1807 and 1830. Precipitation change in the Manas River Basin had a good consistency with that in the Tianshan Mountains,and represented the regional precipitation change history in north Xinjiang and most of Central Asia.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152468
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.伊犁哈萨克自治州气象局, 伊宁, 新疆 835000, 中国
2.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆树木年轮生态实验室
3.中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国

Recommended Citation:
齐元元,尚华明,张瑞波,等. 利用树轮重建玛纳斯河流域过去289 a降水变化[J]. 干旱区研究,2017-01-01,34(4):3373-3380
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