According to the climate data of monthly temperature,precipitation,evaporation,sunshine duration and the yield data of winter wheat from 1990 to 2014 in Wenshui County,we made a quantitative analysis on the influence of climatic factors on the yield of winter wheat and predicted the yield of winter wheat under the circumstance of future climate change by using regression analysis,mathematical statistics and Thornthwaite Memoriae model. The results showed that in the past 25 years,the yield of winter wheat in Wenshui County decreased,but the climatic yield was on the rise; the rise of temperature was conducive to the increase of the yield of winter wheat,and extreme low temperature,too much precipitation and evaporation was unfavorable to the production of winter wheat. The study shows that: " warm and wet" and " cold and wet" climate type are conducive to the increase of the yield of winter wheat," warm and dry" and " cold and dry" climate type are unfavorable to the yield of winter wheat.