globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6030771
论文题名:
极值风速地域性演化及对风力发电机组安全性的影响
其他题名: Spatial Variation in Wind Extremes Under the Context of Climate Change and Its Impact on Safety of Wind Turbines
作者: 苏盛1; 高大兵1; 杨洪明1; 刘光远2; 陈金富3; 郭志全4
刊名: 高电压技术
ISSN: 1003-6520
出版年: 2017
卷: 43, 期:7, 页码:342-350
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 风力发电 ; 50 a一遇最大风速 ; 安全性 ; 极值分布
英文关键词: climate change ; wind power generation ; wind extreme of 50-year recurrence interval ; safety ; extreme value distribution
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING ELECTRICAL ELECTRONIC
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 风力发电机组根据历史气象观测数据计算确定的多年一遇风速进行设计与选型,若气候模式在其寿命期间发生改变,风速极值分布可能出现明显变化,将对风力机的安全性造成突出影响。为此,选用我国风电开发热点区域5处气象站点近40 a气象观测数据,将其分为前后2段(19731992和19932012),利用基于广义Pareto分布的跨阈法分别计算了多年一遇极值风速。分析了长时间尺度下气候变化所致多年一遇极值风速的地域性变化规律及其对风力发电机组安全性的影响。通过前后时段和不同地域多年一遇极值风速的对比,分析发现所调研内蒙和山东站点50 a一遇和1 a一遇最大风速均呈下降趋势,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风力机安全性有正面影响,而华中地区站点基本持平,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风力机安全性无明显影响。
英文摘要: Wind turbines are designed according to wind extremes of 50-year & 1-year recurrence interval calculated with observed historical wind data. However, changes in the wind extremes can impact safety of wind turbines notably once the climate pattern changes in its life cycle. Consequently, we collected wind data from 1973 to 2012 in 5 sites with prosperous wind power development. Generalized Pareto distribution was utilized to calculate wind extremes of 50-year & 1-year recurrence interval with wind data from 1973 to 1992 and 1993 to 2012. Moreover, the temporal and spatial variation of wind extremes and its impact on safety of wind turbines were analyzed. It is found that declining in wind extremes over long term scale in investigated sites in Inner Mongolia and Shandong positively affect the safety of wind turbines, while the sites in Central China slightly affect the safety of wind turbines.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152511
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.长沙理工大学, 智能电网运行与控制湖南省重点实验室, 长沙, 湖南 410004, 中国
2.中核核电运行管理有限公司, 嘉兴, 浙江 314000, 中国
3.华中科技大学, 强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室, 武汉, 湖北 430074, 中国
4.南瑞集团公司(北京), 北京 102200, 中国

Recommended Citation:
苏盛,高大兵,杨洪明,等. 极值风速地域性演化及对风力发电机组安全性的影响[J]. 高电压技术,2017-01-01,43(7):342-350
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