globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6100537
论文题名:
气候变化背景下祁连山区负积温时空变化特征分析
其他题名: Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Accumulated Negative Temperature in Qilian Mountains under Climate Change
作者: 王希强; 陈仁升; 刘俊峰
刊名: 高原气象
ISSN: 1000-0534
出版年: 2017
卷: 36, 期:5, 页码:34-37
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 负积温 ; 时空变化 ; 祁连山 ; 积温转移 ; 空间插值
英文关键词: Accumulated negative temperature ; Spatial and temporal variation ; Qilian Mountains ; Accumulated temperature transfer ; Spatial interpolation
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于祁连山区及周边32个气象站点56年气象资料和较高分辨率DEM数据,采用"多元回归+残差插值"方法,运用多种空间插值手段,获取研究区负积温空间栅格化数据,并详细分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)研究区多年平均负积温(绝对值)分布在607~3507 ℃之间,区域分布差异较大;积温段Ⅲ、 Ⅳ和Ⅱ共占据研究区总面积的91.31%;除积温段Ⅵ外,其余按顺序近似呈环状分布,积温值由外向内递增;栅格尺度负积温动态度自南向北,基本呈带状递减。(2)研究区所有站点均表现出负积温初日推迟、终日提前、持续天数缩短趋势,绝大部分站点通过显著性检验。(3)从1960年代到2000年代期间,积温段Ⅰ和Ⅱ面积持续减少,积温段Ⅴ和Ⅵ面积持续增加,是全球气候变暖的必然结果,但近期却表现出相反趋势,表明从2000年代到2010年以后(20102015年),变暖趋势处于相对停滞阶段;积温段Ⅲ和Ⅳ面积分别呈波动减少和增加趋势,增减幅度较小。(4)积温段Ⅲ~Ⅳ(25.72%)、 Ⅳ~Ⅴ(19.66%)和Ⅱ~Ⅲ(17.90%)是研究区负积温转移的主要类型;从2000年代到2010年以后(20102015年),负积温表现为单向转移,即:从积温值较高段向较低段转移;相邻年代间,负积温存在双向转移,但从积温值较高积温段向较低积温段转移仍占绝对优势,体现了气候波动变暖趋势。
英文摘要: Under the background of climate change, the warming trend in China is significant, especially in winter, which has changed the degree and the spatio-temporal distributions of heat resources. Based on the meteorological data of 32 meteorological stations over the past 56 years in and around the Qilian Mountains and DEM data, rasterizing accumulated negative temperature data was conducted using the "multiple regression plus residual interpolation" method. Results of cross-validation errors revealed that OK gave the best simulation. The results of spatial and temporal variation showed that: (1) Annual average absolute values of accumulated negative temperature were ranged from 607 ℃ to 3507 ℃ in the study area, and the differentiation of regional distributing was large; The area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅱcaptured nearly 91.31% of total area; The accumulated temperature segments presented nearly ring distribution and rised gradually from outside to inside except Ⅵ; On grid scale, the dynamic index of accumulated negative temperature decreased gradually from south to north. (2) By using the methods of linear trend estimates, from 1960 to 2015, the results indicated that the initial date showed an obvious delaying tendency with the linear rate of 1.3 d·(10a)~(-1), the termination date showed an obvious forward tendency with the linear rate of 2.4 d·(10a)~(-1), and the sustainable days showed an obvious declining tendency with the linear rate of 3.7 d·(10a)~(-1). Most of the stations passed the statistical tests of P<0.1. (3) From 1960s to 2000s, the area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅰ and Ⅱ decreased significantly, and accumulated temperature segment Ⅴ and Ⅵ increased significantly, which was the most obvious characteristic in Qilian Mountains. However, the trend was opposite from 2000s to after 2010 (20102015), which may be the result of warming stagnation. The area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅲ and Ⅳ decreased and increased respectively, which showed fluctuation changes. (4) The main types of the change of accumulated temperature segment in the study area were Ⅲ~Ⅳ(25.72%), Ⅳ~Ⅴ(19.66%)andⅡ~Ⅲ(17.90%), which captured 97.73% of the total change. The area which keeped unchanged captured 32.48% of the total change. The transfer matrix of accumulated negative temperature indicated that, from 1960s to after 2010, accumulated negative temperature segment was one-way transfer, which transferred from the higher absolute values of accumulated negative temperature to the lower. However, in adjacent time, it presented two-way transfer. The way from the higher absolute values of accumulated negative temperature to the lower was dominant.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152522
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站, 中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王希强,陈仁升,刘俊峰. 气候变化背景下祁连山区负积温时空变化特征分析[J]. 高原气象,2017-01-01,36(5):34-37
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