globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5961976
论文题名:
气候变化背景下陇东塬区红富士苹果始花期研究
其他题名: The effect of climate change on the apples initial flowering date in the eastern Gansu province
作者: 张艳艳1; 赵玮1; 高庆先2; 张谋草3
刊名: 果树学报
ISSN: 1009-9980
出版年: 2017
卷: 34, 期:4, 页码:347-359
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 苹果始花期 ; 气候变化 ; 陇东塬区
英文关键词: Apple initial flowering date ; Climate change ; Eastern Gansu province
WOS学科分类: HORTICULTURE
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 【目的】分析苹果始花期对气候变化的响应,提取主要影响气象因子,并提出优势苹果花期预报方法;为苹果开花期气象灾害防御和管理措施的调整提供科学依据。【方法】采用偏最小二乘回归法对西峰农业气象试验站多年观测的苹果始花期与光、热、水气象因子进行分析,并开展了苹果始花期预测。【结果】苹果始花期的早晚与2月下旬至4月上旬的旬平均气温及3月平均气温呈显著负相关;苹果开花日期与积温呈现显著的相关性,≥0 ℃、≥5 ℃积温越大或< 0 ℃积温越小,花期出现越早,反之则迟;说明气温升高,开花日期出现早,反之则迟。苹果始花期与稳定通过10 ℃初日接近,较稳定通过5 ℃初日晚超过20 d。利用偏最小二乘回归模型预报苹果始花期,预测日期与实际日期相符率为97%。【结论】影响陇东苹果开花早晚的主要影响因素是热量因子,日照次之,降水影响最小,气候变暖和高光照使苹果始花期提前。偏最小二乘回归模型预测苹果始花期较传统回归模型和线性分析法预报苹果始花期更为科学。
英文摘要: 【Objective】This article primarily analyzes the effect of climate change on the apples initial flowering date. The most important meteorological factors will be identified. Two methods will be used to forecast the apples initial flowering date in this article. Some scientific results will be provided to better allow for identifying meteorological disasters before they occur.【Methods】Used partial least square regression method to analyze the correlations between the apples initial flowering date and meteorological factors. Use the improved accumulated temperature method, linear correlation method and partial least square regression model to forecast the apples initial flowering date. Meteorological factors about light, heat, water were obtained from the Xifeng Agricultural Meteorological Stations observations. Data about apple florescence were obtained from the Xifeng Agricultural Meteorological Station which is located at Dongzhi Loess Plateau, Qingyang city, Gansu province. The observed variety of apples for testing was the Red Fujiapple. Meteorological data was obtained from the Xifeng National Based Station in Gansu province. The years used for testing were all 22 years from 1994 to 2015.【Results】(1) There was a significant negative correlation between the date of apple florescence and the averange temperature from February to early April. There was a low correlation between the date of apple florescence and the average temperature from November last year to January this year. When the average temperature was higher, the apple blossomed earlier. (2) There was a significant correlation between the accumulated temperature (accumulated temperature≥0 ℃ and ≥5 ℃) and the apples initial flowering date during November 1st last year to April 10th this year. The larger the accumulated temperature, the earlier the apples initial flowering date. It indicated, with the heat condition increasing year by year, that the apples initial flowering date also showed an advancing trend. The warmer winter temperatures make apple trees safer to go through the winter. (3) When the average temperature from March to early April was higher than the minimum temperature for the growth of apple trees, the apples initial flowering date was more than 20 days behind the first date of 5 ℃, and was closer to the first date of 10 ℃. (4) The relationship between ten days or more of monthly precipitation and the apples initial flowering date had very little correlation. Therefore, precipitation was not the factor that restricted the blossoming date of the apples. (5) There was a strong negative correlation between the apples initial flowering date and the sunshine duration in early January and March. Especially in March, the sunshine duration had passed the alpha0.05 significance test, which means in March, when the sunshine duration has increased, the apples initial flowering date will also advance. (6) In using the improved accumulated temperature model to forecast the apples initial flowering date from 1994 to 2015, there was a 81.8% year forecast date which was closer to the actual date. The maximum time difference was 16 days. The years with errors of more than 7 days reached 5 years. Then forecasted date of the apples initial flowering date in 2013 was April 23th, while the actual date was April 7th.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152553
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.河北省廊坊市气象局, 廊坊, 河北 065000, 中国
2.中国环境科学研究院, 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012, 中国
3.甘肃省庆阳市气象局, 庆阳, 甘肃 745000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张艳艳,赵玮,高庆先,等. 气候变化背景下陇东塬区红富士苹果始花期研究[J]. 果树学报,2017-01-01,34(4):347-359
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[张艳艳]'s Articles
[赵玮]'s Articles
[高庆先]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[张艳艳]'s Articles
[赵玮]'s Articles
[高庆先]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[张艳艳]‘s Articles
[赵玮]‘s Articles
[高庆先]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.