globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6003397
论文题名:
全球变暖背景下ENSO特征的变化
其他题名: Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming
作者: 夏杨; 孙旭光; 闫燕; 封维扬; 黄芳; 杨修群
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2017
卷: 62, 期:16, 页码:364-373
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 全球变暖 ; 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO) ; 强度 ; 生命期 ; 频率
英文关键词: global warming ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ; intensity ; lifetime ; frequency
WOS学科分类: OCEANOGRAPHY
WOS研究方向: Oceanography
中文摘要: 利用1895~2014年HadISST月平均海温资料和CO_2浓度加倍前后600年海气耦合模式CESM试验结果,对比分析了全球变暖前后厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)特征(强度及其中心位置、生命期与频率)的变化及其可能原因.主要结论如下:全球变暖后,在观测和模拟中气候平均的海温增暖中心分别位于热带西太平洋(类拉尼娜型增暖)和热带东太平洋(类厄尔尼诺型增暖),引起热带太平洋低层东风信风相应地增强和减弱,从而改变了热带太平洋最强海气耦合的位置,决定了ENSO演变特征的不同变化. ENSO事件强度中心位置在类拉尼娜型增暖背景态下更倾向于发生在赤道太平洋中部,形成中太平洋ENSO,而在类厄尔尼诺型增暖背景态下则更偏向赤道东太平洋,形成东太平洋ENSO.两种气候态的改变都会造成全球变暖后El Nino事件生命期的明显延长,其中,类厄尔尼诺型增暖的影响更大,最大可延长约3个月,极端El Nino事件生命期的增长更显著.其主要原因是:全球变暖一方面使热带西太平洋异常西风更早出现,有利于El Nino事件的提早发生发展,另一方面会减小热带太平洋温跃层的平均深度和热带中东太平洋赤道内外平均海温梯度,分别减慢了海洋次表层负反馈Kelvin波的东传速率和减弱了El Nino暖信号的放电速率,使El Nino事件衰亡速度减缓,持续时间更长.另外,观测和模式结果均表明, ENSO事件强度和频率在全球变暖背景下明显增强和增多,并且类拉尼娜型和类厄尔尼诺型增暖背景态会分别导致极端La Nina事件和极端El Nino事件频率显著增多.本文研究结果很好地统一了观测和模式中不同气候背景态下ENSO特征变化的现象和机理,为理解和预估全球变暖后ENSO特征的变化及其气候影响奠定了重要的科学理论基础.
英文摘要: By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO_2 concentration, ENSO characteristics (such as intensity, maximum signal location, lifetime and frequency) are compared pre- and post- global warming. The analysis periods are defined by the eras of 1895-1954 and 1955-2014 in the observations and the two model experiments, without and with doubling of CO_2 concentration, in the model, respectively. The main conclusions are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Nina-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Nino-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Nina-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Nino-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Different background warmings determine the different evolution characteristics of ENSO events. Under the background of La Nina-like warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO). However, the so-called Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO) is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Nino-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Nino-like and the La Nina-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Nino-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Nino events, which is caused by two processes in response to global warming. On the one hand, the earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts (WWB) in the tropical western Pacific makes El Nino occur earlier. On the other hand, the climatological thermocline depth becomes shallower in the tropical Pacific, which can slow down the eastward propagation speed of the negative-feedback Kelvin wave in the subsurface ocean. In addition, the climatological upper-ocean temperature gradient between the equator and off-equator reduces in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which can weaken the discharge rate of the ENSO warm signal. Both of the above processes make El Nino decay slowly and persist longer. Results from both observations and the model also show that the frequency of ENSO events greatly increases due to global warming, and many more extreme El Nino and La Nina events appear under the El Nino-like and the La Nina-like background warmings, respectively. Based on the theories of ENSO evolution, this study shows the possible changes of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming, and reconciles the phenomena and mechanisms of different characteristics of ENSO changes in observations and models, which are essential for the understanding and prediction of the change of ENSO characteristics and its impact under the global warming background in the future.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152694
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 南京大学大气科学学院, 气候与全球变化研究院, 中国气象局-南京大学气候预测研究联合实验室, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国

Recommended Citation:
夏杨,孙旭光,闫燕,等. 全球变暖背景下ENSO特征的变化[J]. 科学通报,2017-01-01,62(16):364-373
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