globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6087237
论文题名:
基于相关分析的水文趋势变异分级原理及验证
其他题名: Principle of correlation coefficient-based classification of hydrological trend and its verification
作者: 赵羽西1; 谢平2; 桑燕芳3; 顾海挺1; 吴子怡1; 雷旭1
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2017
卷: 62, 期:26, 页码:36-46
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水文变异 ; 趋势识别 ; 相关系数 ; 变异分级 ; 显著水平 ; 检测与归因
英文关键词: hydrological variability ; trend identification ; correlation coefficient ; variability classification ; significance level ; detection and attribution
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 趋势变化是水文过程变异十分重要的表征,目前研究主要侧重于趋势识别方法的改进、比较及实例运用,但针对趋势变异程度分级等研究十分缺乏.为此,提出了一种水文序列趋势变异识别与程度分级的方法.该方法通过计算水文序列和时序的相关系数值,将趋势变异程度划分为无变异、弱变异、中变异、强变异及巨变异.通过推导相关系数与趋势斜率之间的公式,说明两者的正相关关系.统计试验验证了公式的合理性,并说明了序列均值和变差系数对相关系数值的影响.将该方法应用于西江高要站不同时间尺度的平均水位序列进行趋势变异程度分级,引入权重概念分析了各尺度平均水位趋势变异之间的联系.结果表明高要站各尺度平均水位序列均呈下降趋势,但趋势变异程度存在差异;权重较大时期平均水位的趋势变异程度对整体趋势变异程度影响更大,结合物理成因分析验证了结果的合理性与所提方法的有效性,因此将有助于定量评估气候变化和人类活动对水文过程的影响.
英文摘要: Under the great influence of climate change and human activities during the recent decades, climatic and hydrological processes in many basins and regions worldwide are changing significantly. Analyzing the variability of hydroclimatic variables, including temperature, evaporation, precipitation and runoff, is an important topic in the hydrology studies, which contributes to understanding the changes in hydrological regime, water resources management, water disasters control and many other issues. Trend is one of those important forms of hydrological variability, and thus has received much attention over the last several decades. Many techniques and methods have been developed for trend detection, such as the least squares linear regression, Sen's robust slope estimator, Mann-endall non-parametric test, Spearman rank correlation, Student's t-test and others. Present studies about the issue of trend mainly focused on the improvement, comparison and applicability of trend identification methods. However, there lacks effective approach for the classification of significance degree of trends in hydrological time series. In this article, by employing the index of correlation coefficient, we mainly proposed a method for the trend identification and classification of its significance degree. Its basic idea is to calculate the correlation coefficient between the hydrological time series analyzed and its time order, based on which the significance degree of trend can be classified as five ranks: no, weak, mid, strong and very strong. By deducing the relationship between the correlation coefficient and the trend's slope, their positive correlation is mathematically formulated. Results of the statistical tests verified the effectiveness of the method, and also clarified the influences of mean values and variance of a time series on the classification practice. Trend variability of water level series over different time scales and measured at the Gaoyao hydrological station was analyzed by the proposed method, and the index of weight was used to investigate the relationship among the significance degrees of trends on different time scales, which were evaluated by the proposed approach. Results indicated that the trends of all water level series presented downward trends, but they showed different significance degrees at multi-time scales. Those trends with bigger weights at certain time scales had bigger influence on the total variability of trends. By considering the physical formation mechanisms of the variability of runoff regimes in the basin, reasonability of the results and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified, which would be helpful for the evaluation of the influence of climate change and human activities on the changes in hydrological process.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152700
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.武汉大学, 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉, 湖北 430072, 中国
2.武汉大学, 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
3.国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心, 武汉, 湖北 430072, 中国
4.中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点室验室, 中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点室验室, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
赵羽西,谢平,桑燕芳,等. 基于相关分析的水文趋势变异分级原理及验证[J]. 科学通报,2017-01-01,62(26):36-46
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