globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6087238
论文题名:
全球1.5和2℃温升时的气温和降水变化预估
其他题名: Temperature and precipitation projection at 1.5 and 2°C increase in global mean temperature
作者: 胡婷1; 孙颖1; 张学斌2
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2017
卷: 62, 期:26, 页码:36-46
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 温升 ; 气温 ; 降水 ; 全球气候模式比较计划(CMIP5) ; 预估
英文关键词: 1.5℃ ; 2℃ ; 1.5°C ; 2°C ; global warming ; temperature ; precipitation ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ; projection
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于新一代全球气候模式比较计划(CMIP5)的结果,评估了全球近地面气温和降水在不同温升时,主要包括1.5和2℃温升时的响应特征.多模式集合平均结果显示, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,全球平均气温相对于工业化前升温1.5℃的时间出现在2036, 2028, 2033和2025年,升温2℃的时间在后3个情景为2049, 2056和2039年,而RCP2.6情景在2100年前没有达到2℃温升(尽管有些单个的模式试验可以达到).全球平均气温到达不同温升的时间主要与不同排放路径上达到的辐射强迫和排放浓度有关.不同情景达到1.5℃(2℃)温升时的辐射强迫和CO_2当量浓度值相近,分别为2.9~3.0 W/m~2(3.7~3.9 W/m~2)以及450.6~454.1 ppm(523.0~539.1 ppm).因此,基于不同组合的排放路径选择决定了温升阈值出现的时间, 1.5℃温升目标的实现可能需要开发更低的排放路径组合.利用气候敏感度为指标对不同模式间差异的分析表明,一般而言,瞬时气候响应高(偏暖)的模式到达1.5和2℃温升的时间早,瞬时气候响应低(偏冷)的模式到达的时间晚,但其他因子也可能影响到达某个特定温升的时间.进一步对多模式集合的空间分布的研究显示,在达到同一温升值时,不同情景驱动下的全球气温和降水变化的分布基本不存在差异,说明在全球和区域尺度上,气温和降水的响应特征和高低排放情景的定义(基于2100年的辐射强迫)基本无关.由此对RCP8.5情景下每升温0.5℃的模式结果分析表明,随着排放和辐射强迫的增加,全球气温和降水基本呈现出高纬温度增幅大于低纬、陆地增温大于海洋、湿润的地方降水增多、干旱的地方降水减少等未来气候变暖的普遍特征.气温每增加0.5℃的区域响应特征基本不存在差异.这说明,在全球和区域尺度上,这些变化基本都是线性的.
英文摘要: Based on climate model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigated the global temperature and precipitation changes when global mean temperature rises by 1.5 and 2°C relative to the preindustrial period (1861-1900). Multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, global mean near-surface temperature (GMST) may reach 1.5°C warming relative to the preindustrial level (1861-1900) around the year 2036, 2028, 2033 and 2025, respectively; and reach 2°C warming in 2049 (RCP4.5), 2056 (RCP6.0) and 2039 (RCP8.5). For RCP2.6 scenario, the 2°C warming could not be seen in the multi-model ensemble mean before 2100, but can be reached in different years in single model simulations including GFDL-CM3, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM. The timing when the GMST reaches a specific warming threshold is primarily related to radiative forcing and CO_2-equivalent concentrations, which show similar value when the GMST rises by the same value. Projections under all RCPs from 25 CMIP5 models show that only 6 models under RCP2.6 scenario can project a warming lower than 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial era before 2100, while the temperature increase under other three scenarios will be more than 1.5°C. It is therefore necessary to develop a set of lower emission scenarios to limit the global warming below 1.5°C. The investigations on inter-model differences show that the model with large transient climate response (TCR), also known as warm models, may reach the 1.5 and 2°C temperature increase earlier than those with low TCR (cold models), though other factors can also affect the model to reach 1.5 or 2°C temperature increase. For the future changes of temperature and precipitation at global scale, the MME results show little distinction among different scenarios when GMST rises by the same value, indicating that the global and regional response characteristics of temperature and precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios definition (defined by the radiative forcing by 2100). Therefore, it is possible to investigate the changes in temperature increase 0.5 under RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that regional responses are almost the same when GMST rises by each additional 0.5°C, indicating that the temperature and precipitation will essentially change linearly. These changes are characterized by more temperature increase in higher latitudes than in low latitudes, more temperature rise in land than in ocean, and increased precipitation in wet areas and decreased precipitation in dry areas, as was commonly detected in multiple studies. This suggests that the global warming impacts could be evaluated based on the multi-model ensemble projections under any RCP scenario with as much as a collection of models. This study also shows that in China, the regional mean temperature and precipitation changes are larger than the global mean when the GMST rises by 1.5 and 2°C. The temperature may increase across all China, with the warming increases from southeast to northwest. The precipitation will increase in most areas but it may decrease in the eastern part south of 30°N, based on the MME results.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152701
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国气象局国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100812, 中国
2.Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario M3H5T4, Canada

Recommended Citation:
胡婷,孙颖,张学斌. 全球1.5和2℃温升时的气温和降水变化预估[J]. 科学通报,2017-01-01,62(26):36-46
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