globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6006230
论文题名:
19612014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析
其他题名: Study on Probabilistic Characteristic and Uncertainty in Fitting of Precipitation Extremes over Xinjiang During 1961-2014
作者: 江远安1; 尹宜舟1; 陈鹏翔1; 孙赫敏2; 樊静1
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2017
卷: 13, 期:1, 页码:375-380
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 降水极值 ; 概率拟合 ; 不确定性 ; 新疆
英文关键词: precipitation extremes ; probabilistic analysis ; uncertainty ; Xinjiang
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 本文采用多种函数初步探讨了19612014年新疆地区日降水极值概率拟合分析中的不确定性。结果表明:新疆气候在暖干向暖湿转变背景下,更易出现极端强降水事件,由此影响极端降水拟合的不确定性;在统计函数选择以及重现期极值拟合中存在不确定性,因此建议在进行新疆区域降水极值分析时选择整体表现较好的GEV、Gen. Logistic、Log-Pearson 3、Pearson 6和Wakeby函数进行合成分析,在进行单站分析时给出具有界限范围的降水极值综合曲线图,以此减少来自函数方面的不确定性。
英文摘要: The uncertainty of the probabilistic distribution of precipitation extremes over Xinjiang during 1961-2014 was discussed by using multi-function method. Results suggest that precipitation extremes easily occur in Xinjiang against the background of the climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet, which could take impact on the fitting of precipitation extremes. The uncertainty exists in the selection of functions and extreme estimations. In order to reduce the uncertainty, its suggested to apply the composite analysis with results of GEV, Gen. Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Pearson 6 and Wakeby functions, when the study is conducted over the whole Xinjiang. For the single station analysis, the compositive curve graph with boundary of the extreme values is suggested to be provided.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152786
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.新疆气象局气候中心, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国
2.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
江远安,尹宜舟,陈鹏翔,等. 19612014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2017-01-01,13(1):375-380
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