globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5978254
论文题名:
鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其归因分析
其他题名: Spatial and Temporal Variations of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration and Its Influencing Factors in Poyang Lake Watershed
作者: 涂安国1; 李英2; 聂小飞2; 莫名浩2
刊名: 生态环境学报
ISSN: 1674-5906
出版年: 2017
卷: 26, 期:2, 页码:3862-3871
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 参考作物蒸散量 ; 归因分析 ; 敏感性分析 ; 回归分析 ; 鄱阳湖流域
英文关键词: reference crop evapotranspiration ; attribution analysis ; sensitivity analysis ; regression analysis ; Poyang lake watershed
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 为分析气候变化下鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量(ET_0)的变化特征及其影响因子,利用鄱阳湖流域13个气象站1960 2014年逐日气象观测资料和Penman-Monteith公式计算ET_0,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、累积距平、敏感曲线和线性回归等方法分析了鄱阳湖流域ET_0变化特征及主要气象因子对年ET_0变化的贡献。结果表明:鄱阳湖流域多年平均ET_0为1 054.1 mm,从南至北呈减少趋势,但总体相差不大;年内季节性差异明显,夏季ET_0为冬季的3.53倍。近55年来,鄱阳湖流域ET_0除春季呈上升趋势外,其他季节均呈下降趋势,其中夏季呈显著下降趋势(P<0.01);流域年ET_0总体呈显著下降趋势(P<0.01),其年均速率为-1.09 mm·a~(-1),其中,气温对ET_0的影响为0.55 mm·a~(-1),相对湿度对ET_0的影响为0.47 mm·a~(-1),风速对ET_0的影响为-1.27 mm·a~(-1),年日照数对ET_0的影响为-0.83 mm·a~(-1)。因此,日照时数和风速的减少是引起鄱阳湖流域ET_0下降的主要原因。鄱阳湖流域年ET_0变化对相对湿度、平均气温、日照时数、风速等气象因子变化响应强度依次减弱。该研究对于开展气候变化对鄱阳湖流域水资源影响评估具有一定的科学意义和应用价值。
英文摘要: In order to analyze the variation characteristics and influencing factors of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET_0) in Poyang Lake basin under the climate change, reference crop evapotranspiration (ET_0) from 1960 to 2014 was estimated with FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation in 13 stations in Poyang lake watershed. The seasonally and annual changes of ET_0 and its causes were analyzed by using the Mann Kendall trend test, accumulative anomalies, sensitive curve and linear regression method. The results show that the annual average of ET_0 is 1 054.1 mm. Spatially, the ET_0 had an increased trend after an initial decrease from south to north, but the difference is not obvious. While seasonal difference is obvious, ET_0 in summer is 3.53 times as much as in winter. In recent 55 years, the ET_0 showed a declined trend except spring, which showed a significant downward trend in summer (P<0.01). The annual ET_0 population showed a significant downward trend (P<0.01), with an average annual rate of -1.09 mm·a~(-1), in which annual average temperature increase contribution to 0.55 mm, the relative humidity increase contribution to 0.47 mm, wind speed decreased contribution to -1.27 mm, the annual sunshine hours decreased contribution to -0.83 mm. Consequently, the change of ET_0 is primarily attributed to the significantly decreased sunshine duration and wind speed in Poyang lake watershed. Relative humidity is the most sensitive variable to ET_0 in general for study area, followed by air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed. Research results for climate change impact on Poyang lake Watershed water resources assessment and promote the benign development of the ecological system have important scientific significance and application value.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152886
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.河海大学水文水资源学院, 江西省土壤侵蚀与防治重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210098, 中国
2.江西省土壤侵蚀与防治重点实验室, 江西省土壤侵蚀与防治重点实验室, 南昌, 江西 330029, 中国

Recommended Citation:
涂安国,李英,聂小飞,等. 鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其归因分析[J]. 生态环境学报,2017-01-01,26(2):3862-3871
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