globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5968265
论文题名:
气候变化影响与风险研究的理论范式和方法体系
其他题名: Theory paradigm and a methods system for research on climate change impacts and risks
作者: 高江波1; 焦珂伟1; 吴绍洪1; 郭灵辉2
刊名: 生态学报
ISSN: 1000-0933
出版年: 2017
卷: 37, 期:7, 页码:39-51
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化影响 ; 研究范式 ; 理论范式 ; 分析方法
英文关键词: climate change impacts ; research paradigm ; theory paradigm ; analysis methods
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 以全球变暖为主的气候变化将会在本世纪持续,针对气候变化影响与风险而采取适应和减缓措施,得到了国际社会的广泛认同。然而,气候变化影响与风险研究领域理论和方法并不规范,研究结果缺乏可比性。基于科学哲学家库恩提出的理论范式和构造范式概念,梳理、集成气候变化影响与风险研究的脆弱性-要素分离-不确定性-风险理论框架,总结相应的方法体系包括实地观测与科学实验、数值模型和统计方法、风险定量化评估框架等。气候变化影响与风险研究应遵循理论范式四要素的逻辑关系,综合运用多种分析方法,力求相关研究的整体性和系统化,以利增强气候变化影响与风险研究的科学性及其成果的应用指导意义。
英文摘要: Adaptation and mitigation measures against climate change impacts and risks,especially global warming threats, have been widely accepted by the governments, scientists, and organizations. However, theories and methods for assessing climate change impacts and risks are not standardized, causing incomparable results for different sectors. Based on the conception of social and structural paradigms developed by Kuhn,this study first proposed the theory paradigm for research on climate change impacts and risks according to the logical ideas of Vulnerability Separation Uncertainty Risks, and then summarized the corresponding analysis methods, including observations, experiments, models, statistics, and the framework of quantified risk assessment. Furthermore, based on the transferring logic of the four components of theory paradigm, systematic research on the climate change impacts and risks can be accomplished with synthetic application of different analysis methods. This study could be helpful in the advancement of studies on climate change impacts and risks, and enhance their application in tackling climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152960
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
2.河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院, 焦作, 河南 454000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
高江波,焦珂伟,吴绍洪,等. 气候变化影响与风险研究的理论范式和方法体系[J]. 生态学报,2017-01-01,37(7):39-51
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[高江波]'s Articles
[焦珂伟]'s Articles
[吴绍洪]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[高江波]'s Articles
[焦珂伟]'s Articles
[吴绍洪]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[高江波]‘s Articles
[焦珂伟]‘s Articles
[吴绍洪]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.