At present, there are serious environmental problems caused by global warming, primarily resulting from the interaction of industrial fossil fuel emissions and Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC). According to IPCC reports, the industrial sector is the most important source of fossil fuel consumption, which accounts for 78.75% of the carbon emission to the atmosphere. In China, the annual growth rate of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion has been 5.2% since 1978,and the future growth trend is difficult to reverse. Moreover, a lack of ecological security in the implementation of the cultivated land balance policy, the principle of occupying one up one ,can easily lead local governments to incorrectly understand infinite cultivated land reserve resources. Thus, to explore how natural resources, industrial development,and restricted cultivated land protection policies affect the ecological pressure of industrial carbon emission in different cities, the present study uses Dongying and Binzhou as examples. Both cities, located in the Yellow River delta, were used to research the ecological pressure of industrial carbon emission based on the Net Primary Productivity Model(NPPM); the elastic coefficient model was applied to analyze changes of influencing factors from 2005 to 2014; and finally, the potential of low-carbon sustainable development using the scene simulation method was measured. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is employed as a common indicator of biological productivity and the Net Primary Productivity Model(NPPM) can illustrate the interaction between carbon emissions and land carbon sequestration. The following conclusions were reached: (1) carbon emissions and carbon emission intensities of Dongying were significantly higher than that of Binzhou, and the ecological footprint of carbon emissions annually increased by 12.79 and 6.16%,respectively. This is related to the difference of industrial development between the two cities. (2) After analyzing the results of the elastic coefficient model, we found the combination of critical factors of the industrial carbon emission ecological footprint of Dongying changed from a cultivated land-land urbanization rate-energy structure coefficient, to cultivated land-population size-energy structure coefficient," to cultivated land-population size-the proportion of the second industry" from 2005 2008 to 20082011 and 20112014; that of Binzhou remained a population size-land urbanization rate-energy structure coefficient" from 2005 to 2014. (3) Through the situational simulation analysis until 2020,we found that under the baseline scenario, the carbon emission ecological deficit of Binzhou was approximately ten times than that of Dongying; under the low carbon scenario, that of Binzhou was only 2.6 times that of Dongying. Regarding the emission reduction potential (the distance between the carbon emission ecological deficit under the baseline scenario and low carbon scenario), the potential of Binzhou was significantly higher than that of Dongying. However, the low carbon scenario of Binzhou is at the expense of a serious slowdown from 20.6 to 6.5% in industry GDP, which needs to forcibly eliminate high energy-consuming enterprises, and economic growth mainly relies on the completion of the third industry. Therefore, there is a very high demand for the readjustment of the industrial structure. Regarding Dongying, the low carbon scenario needs to improve the energy use efficiency by double, and ensure the restoration of large numbers of carbon sink" resources.