globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6036969
论文题名:
我国三北地区植被变化的动因分析
其他题名: Dynamic analysis of vegetation change in north China
作者: 曹世雄1; 刘冠楚2; 马华3
刊名: 生态学报
ISSN: 1000-0933
出版年: 2017
卷: 37, 期:15, 页码:399-407
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 荒漠化 ; 生态恢复 ; 人类活动 ; 植被变化
英文关键词: climate change ; desertification ; ecological restoration ; human activities ; vegetation cover change
WOS学科分类: BIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
中文摘要: 地表植被变化是气候变化、人类活动等多种因素共同作的结果。然而,以往的研究要么集中在与气候变化有关的气象因素,要么集中在与人类活动有关的人为因素,鲜有基于长期数据监测下对自然与社会因素之间相互作用的定量评估。因此,气候变化和人为因素对地表植被变化的相互作用并不明确,各个因素对植被变化影响的量化贡献仍然不确定。为了评价生态修复项目对荒漠化防治的效果、以及在土地荒漠化防治中自然与社会因素对我国植被变化的影响、及其复杂的相互作用机理,该研究应用卫星遥感影像资料,通过面板数据混合回归模型大数据分析方法,计算了1983年至2012年气候变化和人类活动对我国北方地区植被变化的贡献率。结果表明,气候变化和人类活动对NDVl变化均有重要作用,其中人类活动对植被覆盖度变化的影响占58.2%90.4%、气候变化占9.6% - 41.8%;不同地区表现出不同的地理分异特征,并存在时滞效应。由此可见,荒漠化防治必须充分考虑不同因素的综合作用和地域特征,才能取得事半功倍的效果。研究结果较好地体现了卫星遥感影像资料在大尺度(省域尺度)下与社会经济统计指标的融合,为进一步中尺度(县域尺度)研究提供了方法借鉴。
英文摘要: Drylands cover approximately 54 million km~2,which accounts for 40% of the global land area,and is inhabited by 20% of the human population; however, these areas are increasingly affected by desertification. Desertification is concentrated in the northwestern, northern, and northeastern parts of China (the so-called Three Norths ):an estimated 3.3 million km~2 have been affected by desertification, accounting for 34% of China's total land area. Desertification has become a crucial environmental problem at a global scale, and has begun to affect the survival and socioeconomic development of humankind. Research has suggested that both climate and human activities play important roles in the process of desertification, which is complicated and includes complex interactions between human and natural factors ( e.g., climate). However, previous research generally focused on either meteorological factors associated with climate change or factors associated with human activities,and lacked quantitative assessments of their long-term interaction. Thus,the roles of climate change and human factors in vegetation cover change and desertification are uncertain. This creates a high risk of misunderstanding the current situation and adopting ineffective policies and programs to combat desertification. It is, therefore, urgently necessary to comprehensively study the interacting effects. To understand the factors that determine whether mitigation programs can contribute to desertification control and vegetation cover improvement in desertified areas of China, and the complex interactions that affect their success, we used a pooled regression model based on panel data to calculate the relative roles of climate change and human activities on the desertified area and vegetation cover. We used the 1983 to 2012 normalized-difference vegetation index, NDVI, which decreases with increasing desertification. We found similar effect magnitudes for climate change and human activity factors for NDVI:human activity factors were the dominant factor that affected vegetation change, accounting for 58.2%-90.4% of the effects. Climate change accounted for 9.6%- 41.8% of the effects on NDVI. Therefore, desertification control programs must account for the integrated effects of both socioeconomic and natural factors. Although humans are clearly part of nature,we are qualitatively different from other parts of nature:our actions have more rapid and disruptive consequences than those of most natural phenomena. Therefore,we must be careful to avoid the adoption of extreme approaches to change natural ecosystems because our changes may occur more rapidly than it is possible for the ecosystems to adapt,and the resulting problems may not be evident immediately but have long-term consequences. Our method for identifying the contributions of each driving factor was defensible for providing a broad overview. This method should be identified in future research to improve the ability of this research to support restoration planning.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153005
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.延安大学经济管理学院, 延安, 716000
2.北京林业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083, 中国
3.南宁市水利局, 南宁, 广西 530001, 中国

Recommended Citation:
曹世雄,刘冠楚,马华. 我国三北地区植被变化的动因分析[J]. 生态学报,2017-01-01,37(15):399-407
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