globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6059331
论文题名:
基于Maxent模型的美国西海岸树流感暴发风险时空分析
其他题名: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Potential SOD Outbreak Risks Area in the US West Coast Based on Maxent Model
作者: 江厚志1; 曹春香1; 陈伟1; 党永峰2; 王雪军2; 王威2
刊名: 世界林业研究
ISSN: 1001-4241
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期:4, 页码:4-17,25
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 树流感 ; Maxent模型 ; 美国西海岸 ; 时空分析
英文关键词: Sudden Oak Death (SOD) ; Maxent Model ; west coast of the United States ; spatio-temporal analysis
WOS学科分类: FORESTRY
WOS研究方向: Forestry
中文摘要: 树流感即栎树猝死病(SOD)自从在美国发现以来,已经造成了美国加利福尼亚州树木大量死亡,并且扩散到了俄勒冈州。对树流感未来暴发风险区域的研究能够为树流感防控提供科学依据,同时为中国防治类似森林病虫害提供借鉴。联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会(IPCC)在第5次评估报告中指出,根据温室气体排放模式的不同未来气候变化有4种可能趋势。该研究基于现在的全球植被覆盖数据、过去的气候数据和未来4种不同排放模式下的气候数据,运用Maxent模型预测了北美西海岸地区在2000年、2050年、2070年树流感暴发风险区域。对预测结果的时空对比分析发现,北美西海岸地区未来树流感暴发高风险区域将会往北和西海岸地区扩张,在各种气候模式下扩张的情况不一样,其中相对于2000年,在RCP85排放模式下2070年北美西海岸地区的高风险区域将会增加174%。
英文摘要: Since the Sudden Oak Death (SOD) was found in the United States, it has caused a large number of trees death in California, and also spread to the State of Oregon. The study of SOD outbreak risk area could provide scientific basis for the SOD prevention and control and also is of great references value for China to prevent the similar forest diseases and pests. In its fifth assessment report, the IPCC identified four possible trends of future climate change scenarios based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission patterns, namely RCP26, RCP45, RCP60 and RCP85. This paper predicted the risk area of SOD in the west coast of America in 2000, 2050 and 2070 using the Maxent Model, based on current global vegetation cover data, past climate data and future climate data under the four emission scenarios. The results of spatio-temporal analysis of the predict showed that the high risk area of SOD will expand to the north and west of the west coast of the United States, and the expansion pattern under the different climate scenarios is different. Compared with that in 2000, the high-risk area under the RCP 85 in the west coast of the United States will increase by 174% in 2070.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153136
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所, 北京 100101, 中国
2.国家林业局调查规划设计院, 北京 100714, 中国

Recommended Citation:
江厚志,曹春香,陈伟,等. 基于Maxent模型的美国西海岸树流感暴发风险时空分析[J]. 世界林业研究,2017-01-01,30(4):4-17,25
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