Under the influences of climate change and human activities, great changes in the runoff of watershed have taken place. Especially in the Haihe River basin, a water resources shortage phenomenon is more serious, hence it is very important to analyze the trends of water resources for sustainable development of the water resources. According to the characteristics of actual landform and the distribution of hydrological stations in the Haihe River basin,the historical variation trends of the annual runoff in the five selected typical watersheds of the Haihe River basin are tested with the Mann-Kendall method and the linear regression method. Based on the semi-distributed hydrological model - TOPMODEL, the quantitative assessment of the impacts of the climate change and human activities on variation in runoff is made. And the analysis results indicate that there is a significant trend in the recorded runoff at each key hydrometric station with the exception of the Taolinkou station. The reduced runoff is mainly related to the human activities, and the influenced range is more than 65%. The responses of runoff to the human activities is between 65% ~70% for the Guantai station, Zhangjiafen station and Xiangshuibao station, and the response for other two is 81.7% and 75.4% respectively. The main cause is hydrological effects generated by large-scale water conservancy construction in the Haihe River basin since the 1960's.