globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5976371
论文题名:
非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述
其他题名: Progresses on statistical modeling of non-stationary extreme sequences and its application in climate and hydrological change
作者: 鲁帆; 肖伟华; 严登华; 王浩
刊名: 水利学报
ISSN: 0559-9350
出版年: 2017
卷: 48, 期:4, 页码:421-430
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 非平稳性 ; 极值统计建模 ; 气候变化 ; 水文时间序列 ; 协变量
英文关键词: non-stationary ; statistical modeling of extreme values ; climate change ; hydrological sequences ; covariate
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 伴随全球气候变暖和平均海平面持续上升,极端气象事件出现的频率增加、强度增大,气候变化已经成为导致水文极值非平稳性的一个重要原因。本文总结了气候-水文变化研究中常用非平稳时间序列极值统计模型的结构以及统计推断方法,从降雨极值变化、洪水极值变化等方面分析了非平稳时间序列极值统计模型在气候-水文变化研究中的典型应用案例。国内外研究表明:非平稳时间序列极值统计模型能体现水文极值随时间或协变量的变化情势,非平稳情况下水文极值重现期和风险的概念和计算方法与传统平稳时间序列的频率分析相比存在显著差异。最后对需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
英文摘要: In the context of global warming and average rise in sea level, obvious changes are witnessed with regard to the frequency and intensity of major extreme weather and climate events. Climate change has become an important cause of non-stationarity in hydrology. Several approaches have been proposed to tackle non-stationarity of hydro-meteorological extremes in the literatures. The structures and extreme inference methods of non-stationary sequences model applied usually in climate and hydrology change are summarized in this paper. Some typical examples in statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary hydrologic sequences are analyzed. The applications demonstrate that changes of hydrology variables according to time or covariates can be reflected by statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary sequences,and the return period and risk assessment for non-stationary situations can be quite different from those corresponding to stationary conditions. Finally, perspectives on statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary sequences are proposed.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153162
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 中国水利水电科学研究院, 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038, 中国

Recommended Citation:
鲁帆,肖伟华,严登华,等. 非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述[J]. 水利学报,2017-01-01,48(4):421-430
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[鲁帆]'s Articles
[肖伟华]'s Articles
[严登华]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[鲁帆]'s Articles
[肖伟华]'s Articles
[严登华]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[鲁帆]‘s Articles
[肖伟华]‘s Articles
[严登华]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.