globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6146194
论文题名:
1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析
其他题名: Analysis of characteristics of annual precipitation in Nanning during 1961-2016
作者: 杜懿1; 麻荣永1
刊名: 水资源与水工程学报
ISSN: 1672-643X
出版年: 2017
卷: 28, 期:6, 页码:427-438
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水文序列 ; 降雨量 ; 趋势分析 ; 突变分析 ; 周期分析 ; 南宁市
英文关键词: hydrological sequence ; precipitation ; change trend ; mutation analysis ; cycle analysis ; Nanning city
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 采用水文序列中常用的线性趋势线、距平分析、滑动平均、累积滤波器、Kendall秩次相关和R/S分析等方法,分析了南宁市1961-2016年间的年降雨量变化趋势,此外还采用了Mann-Kendall和Morlet小波分析方法对序列的突变性和周期性进行了检验。结果表明: 1961-2016年间,南宁市年降雨量大致呈上升趋势,但不明显,且未来几年内降雨量极有可能继续增加;近10来年,年降雨序列突变频繁,造成这一现象的原因可能是全球气候的变化; 1961-2016年间年降雨量序列近似呈13 a的周期,且可能潜在超过30 a的大周期,但由于序列长度限制,无法显现。
英文摘要: In this paper, the annual precipitation changing trend during 1961-2016 in Nanning was analyzed by using the linear tendency,anomaly percent,moving average curve,cumulative filter method,Kendall test method and R/S which are commonly used in hydrological sequence. In addition,Mann-Kendall and Morlet wavelet analysis method was adopted to test the mutability and periodicity of the sequence. The results show that from 1961 to 2016,Nanning annual precipitation roughly shows an upward trend,but not obvious,and it is very likely that rainfall will continue to increase in the next few years. In the recent 10 years,the annual rainfall series have changed frequently,which may be attributed to the global climate change. The annual precipitation sequence show the 13a-period,but there may be a larger period, though it is not shown. The 1961-2016 annual rainfall sequence is approximately 13 years and may potentially exceed the 30-year cycle,but can not be visualized due to sequence length limitations.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153224
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.广西大学土木建筑工程学院, 工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室
2.广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室, 南宁, 广西 530004, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杜懿,麻荣永. 1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报,2017-01-01,28(6):427-438
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