globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6062144
论文题名:
全球排放情景实现路径及国别影响研究
其他题名: Realization of global representative concentration pathways emission scenarios and its regional impacts
作者: 周爽1; 齐天宇2; 赵旭光2
刊名: 系统工程理论与实践
ISSN: 1000-6788
出版年: 2017
卷: 37, 期:8, 页码:434-447
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 典型浓度路径 ; 全球碳市场 ; 全球能源经济模型
英文关键词: representative concentration pathways ; the global carbon market ; the global energy economy model
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: IPCC第五次评估报告采用典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathways, RCP)情景对全球温室气体浓度与气候影响作出分析,但当前研究对于排放路径实施的具体方案讨论较少.本文采用反应发展中国家诉求的收缩与趋同方案对RCP情景描述的C02排放空间进行分配,应用全球多区域动态一般均衡模型对全球各区域的减排路径及能源经济影响进行分析.研究表明,由于各国发展阶段与特征不同,减排成本的国别差异较大,中国经济损失(5.3%~14.2%之间)明显高于欧盟与美国,且中国在2030年以前实现严格减排的经济冲击比2030年以后实现更大.中国一方面需要谨慎做出国际减排承诺,一方面也应该寻求国际社会更多的支持与帮助.同时,全球碳排放配额交易机制的建立可以大幅降低国际减排成本.研究结果为中国在国际谈判中争取合理发展空间,设计国际合作制度等提供研究支持.
英文摘要: The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted four groups of representative concentration pathways (RCP) emission scenarios for the analysis on global greenhouse gas concentration and climate impact in the fifth assessment report. But the current research on the specific pathways of the emission pathways implementation is less. This paper distributes CO_2 emissions space of RCP scenarios description with the scheme of "contraction and convergence", reflecting development demands of developing countries, and analyses the emissions pathways and energy economy effect on all regions in the world using global multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium model. Research shows that, due to the different development stages and characteristics, the difference of the reduction cost is great within different countries. China's economic losses (between 3% and 12%) is obviously higher than the European Union or the United States, and the Chinese economic impact of implementing strict emissions before 2030 is more than after 2030. Thus, China need careful international emission reduction commitment and should also seek more international support and help. The establishment of the global carbon emissions cap-and-trade mechanism can greatly reduce the emission cost. The results of the study provide the research support for China in the international negotiations for the reasonable development space and the design of the international cooperation system.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153270
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.吉林大学商学院, 长春, 吉林 130012, 中国
2.清华大学能源环境经济研究所, 北京 100084, 中国

Recommended Citation:
周爽,齐天宇,赵旭光. 全球排放情景实现路径及国别影响研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2017-01-01,37(8):434-447
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