In the present study, an evaluation index system of agricultural water and soil resources security was constructed under the DPSIR model framework by structural equation modeling to quantitatively evaluate the water and soil resources security in Ningxia from 2004 to 2014, and to explore the optimal paths for water and soil resources security in Ningxia. It was shown that the evaluation indexes of driving force subsystem and state subsystem showed a steady upward development trend, and were increased from -1.172 and -1.067 in 2004 to 1.754 and 1.540 in 2014, respectively. The evaluation index of pressure subsystem continued to decrease. As the pressure subsystem was a negative index, it showed that the pressure of agriculture water and soil resources was increasing. Because the environment of Ningxia was sensitive to the global climate change, the evaluation index of impact subsystem didn't show a clear trend. The evaluation index of response subsystem displayed steady and rapid growth except a single point anomaly in 2013. Overall, the agricultural water and soil resources security in Ningxia could be divided into 3 stages: (1) The security index increased from -0.434 in 2004 to 0.091 in 2008, despite that three years in the past five years were at a low level; (2) The security index decreased from 0.091 in 2008 to -0.344 in 2010, when the situation was not optimistic; (3) The security index increased from -0.344 in 2010 to 0.659 in 2014, when the intermediate level reached to 80%. The result of grey prediction showed that the agricultural water and soil resources security in Ningxia would be on a steady rise state in 2015-2010. The potential security index might rise from 0.523 to 1.204, and the security indexes would all be at high level. The security development of agricultural water and soil resources in Ningxia had some breakthrough, but it was still lying in the initial stage and had great potential.