globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5959526
论文题名:
未来全球PM_(2.5)浓度时空变化特征的模拟
其他题名: Simulation of global distribution of temporal and spatial variation of PM_(2.5) concentration in the future
作者: 杨冬冬1; 赵树云1; 张华1; 沈新勇2
刊名: 中国环境科学
ISSN: 1000-6923
出版年: 2017
卷: 37, 期:4, 页码:463-471
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 人为气溶胶 ; 自然气溶胶
英文关键词: PM_(2.5) ; BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero ; PM_(2.5) ; anthropogenic aerosol ; natural aerosol ; BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 根据政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(IPCC AR5)给出的气溶胶及其前体物的不同排放情景RCP2.6(低排放)、RCP4.5(中等排放)和RCP8.5(高排放),利用国家气候中心的气溶胶-气候在线耦合模式,分别模拟了2010~2030和2030~2050年总PM_(2.5)(人为和自然PM_(2.5)的总和)及其中人为和自然气溶胶柱含量的时空变化,并预估了的绿色排放情景RCP4.5下中国地区人为和自然气溶胶对总PM_(2.5)浓度变化的贡献.结果表明,在3种排放情景下,2010~2030年PM_(2.5)柱含量变化的空间分布基本相似.在欧洲、北非及其西侧的洋面上,PM_(2.5)呈现不同程度的增加,其中以北非及其西侧的洋面上的增加最为明显,而阿拉伯半岛东部PM_(2.5)则明显减少.在RCP4.5排放情景下,中国地区年均PM_(2.5)地表浓度的减少量约为2.55 mug/m~3,其中人为气溶胶的贡献约为28%,自然气溶胶的贡献约为72%.2030~2050年,3种排放情景下PM_(2.5)柱含量变化的空间分布差异较大,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,非洲北部及其西侧洋面的PM_(2.5)显著增加,而东亚地区的PM_(2.5)显著减少,而RCP2.6排放情景与前2种情景的结果区别很大.在RCP4.5排放情景下,中国地区PM_(2.5)及其中人为和自然气溶胶均在2010~2030年的基础上进一步减少,而且人为气溶胶在其中的贡献(约为34%)也有所增加.
英文摘要: According to the emission scenarios of aerosols and their precursors, RCP2.6 (low emission), RCP4.5 (medium emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) scenarios given by the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), the temporal and spatial variations of the concentrations of total PM_(2.5) (the sum of anthropogenic and natural aerosols), anthropogenic and natural aerosols in PM_(2.5) over the globe from 2010 to 2030 and 2030 to 2050, as well as the contributions of anthropogenic and natural aerosols to these variations under the green emission scenario (RCP4.5) over China were simulated in this work, using an aerosol-climate online coupled model from National Climate Center. Results show that from 2010 to 2030, the spatial variations of the column concentrations of PM_(2.5) under the three emission scenarios were basically similar to each other. The column concentrations of PM_(2.5) increase over Europe, North Africa, and the ocean to the west of North Africa, but the increase over North Africa and the ocean to the west of it was more significant than that over Europe. However, the column concentrations of PM_(2.5) decrease over the Arabian peninsula. The annual mean surface concentrations of PM_(2.5) over China decreased approximately by 2.55mug/m~3, with the anthropogenic aerosols accounting for about 28% and the natural aerosols accounting for about 72% under RCP4.5 scenario. From 2030 to 2050, the spatial variations of the column concentrations of PM_(2.5) differred greatly under the three different emission scenarios. The column concentrations of PM_(2.5) increased apparently over North Africa and ocean to the west of it, while decreased over East Asia under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Whereas, the results under RCP2.6 scenario were quite different from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In China, the column concentrations of PM_(2.5), as well as the anthropogenic and natural aerosols in PM_(2.5), were reduced further than the previous period under RCP4.5 scenario, with the contributions (about 34%) of anthropogenic aerosols increasing.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153458
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
2.中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
3.南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨冬冬,赵树云,张华,等. 未来全球PM_(2.5)浓度时空变化特征的模拟[J]. 中国环境科学,2017-01-01,37(4):463-471
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