globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6140767
论文题名:
低碳发展背景下中国温室气体排放变化及其对全球减排的贡献
其他题名: Chinas greenhouse gas emissions in low-carbon planning and contribution to global reductions
作者: 刘洋; 郑景云; 葛全胜; 王芳
刊名: 资源科学
ISSN: 1007-7588
出版年: 2017
卷: 39, 期:12, 页码:492-500
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 温室气体排放 ; 政策规划 ; 排放峰值 ; 全球减排 ; 低碳发展 ; 情景分析 ; 中国
英文关键词: GHG emission ; policy planning ; emission peak ; global emission reduction ; low-carbon development ; scenario analysis ; China
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 为明确中国温室气体峰值排放变化及其对全球减排的促进关系,本文通过从行业终端出发的温室气体排放模型,利用联合国相关组织、世界银行、国际能源署等机构的数据,结合中国能源战略规划目标设置了由弱到强的三种减排政策支持力度,分析了当前至2060年的中国温室气体排放特征与达峰时间和累积排放量变化,以及中国对全球温室气体减排的贡献。主要结论有:①中国在应对气候变化的既有能源政策支持下,将于2030年达到温室气体排放峰值(144.287.48)亿t CO_2eq,20202060年累计排放量将比无减缓政策情景减少约2243.82亿t CO_2eq;②加快能源目标的实现有助于尽早达峰,如中国在2025年达成2030年能源规划目标,温室气体排放达峰时间将提前到2027年,其峰值(133.886.03)亿t CO_2eq,20202060年累计排放量较2030年达峰的情景减少约517.46亿t CO_2eq,尽早达峰可使排放总量显著下降;③在各国国家自主决定贡献(INDCs)承诺顺利实现的情况下,如果中国达峰时间从2030年提前至2027年,不太可能改变全球排放达峰的时间(2031年),但可使全球排放峰值从534.89亿t CO_2eq下降为523.54亿t CO_2eq左右,20312060年的全球排放量下降速率从4.26亿t CO_2eq/a提高到4.38亿t CO_2eq/a。
英文摘要: Based on a final energy sector-based emission model and data from the United Nations,World Bank,International Energy Agency and plans released by the Chinese government,three scenarios were designed according to the strength of policies to address climate change in China and project greenhouse gases(GHG)emissions until 2060.We analyzed the time of the GHG emission peak and cumulative emissions for China,as well as their relationships with global GHG emission variation.We found that China will reach a GHG emission peak in 2030(14.4280.748* 109 tCO_2eq)when all existing energy policies fully implemented,and the reduction in cumulative emissions from 2020 to 2060 is 224.382 * 109 tCO_2eq compared to scenarios without mitigation.Accelerating energy target achievement is helpful in peaking earlier.For example,when Chinas energy targets for 2030 are achieved five years earlier in 2025,the emission peak only moves three years earlier in 2027(13.3880.603*10~9 tCO_2eq),and cumulative emissions from 2020 to 2060 falls by 51.746 * 109 tCO_2eq compared with the scenario peaking at 2030.Peaking earlier is significant to total cumulative emission reduction.If all countries accomplish their INDCs,three years ahead of Chinas peak of 2030 to 2027 is unlikely to change the time of the global peak in 2031.However,the global peak declines from 53.489 * 109 tCO_2eq to 52.354 * 109 tCO_2eq,and promotes declining emission trends from 426*10~6 tCO_2eq/year to 438 *10~6 tCO_2eq/year from 2031 to 2060.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153666
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘洋,郑景云,葛全胜,等. 低碳发展背景下中国温室气体排放变化及其对全球减排的贡献[J]. 资源科学,2017-01-01,39(12):492-500
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[刘洋]'s Articles
[郑景云]'s Articles
[葛全胜]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[刘洋]'s Articles
[郑景云]'s Articles
[葛全胜]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[刘洋]‘s Articles
[郑景云]‘s Articles
[葛全胜]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.