globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5919360
论文题名:
基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估
其他题名: Projection of Extreme Precipitation Events in China Based on Regional Climate Model CCLM
作者: 景丞1; 陶辉2; 王艳君1; 苏布达3; 黄金龙2; 姜彤1
刊名: 自然资源学报
ISSN: 1000-3037
出版年: 2017
卷: 32, 期:2, 页码:495-502
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 极端降水事件 ; IAD方法 ; 区域气候模式 ; 预估
英文关键词: climate change ; extreme precipitation events ; IAD method ; regional climate model ; projection
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 选用中国气象局国家气候中心由逐日观测资料插值而成的格点化观测数据集,评估了区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)对中国极端降水的模拟能力,并对2016-2050年中国极端降水事件进行预估。文中主要采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,识别了既定时间尺度下具有一定强度和影响面积的极端降水事件,分析未来中国极端降水事件的特征和变化趋势,结果表明:1)区域气候模式CCLM对中国极端降水的空间分布和变化趋势均有较强的模拟能力;2)2016-2050年中国极端降水事件整体呈增加趋势,RCP 8.5情景下变化更为显著,事件强度更大;3)未来不同情景下,均有可能发生强度或影响面积超过基准期最大值的事件,其中影响面积大的事件多发生在华北和东北,强度大的事件多发生在西南和华南。
英文摘要: A gridded observation data set interpolated with daily observation data by the National Climate Center is selected to evaluate the capability of a regional climate model COSMO- CLM(CCLM)for simulating extreme precipitation in China. The paper mainly applies the Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method to identify the extreme precipitation events with certain intensity in certain area at the given time scale, and project the trend of extreme precipitation events in the future (2016-2050) based on the CCLM output. The research results show that:1) CCLM can well capture the distribution and trend of the extreme precipitation in China. 2) The extreme precipitation events in China will increase during 2016- 2050. The increasing trend is more significant and the events are more intensive in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5.3) Extreme precipitation events beyond the maximum intensity/ coverage of baseline period are likely to occur in all emission scenarios during 2016-2050. The events with larger area will mainly distribute in North China and Northeast China. The events with higher intensity will mainly distribute in Southwest China and South China.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153679
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理与遥感学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
3.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理与遥感学院, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
景丞,陶辉,王艳君,等. 基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估[J]. 自然资源学报,2017-01-01,32(2):495-502
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[景丞]'s Articles
[陶辉]'s Articles
[王艳君]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[景丞]'s Articles
[陶辉]'s Articles
[王艳君]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[景丞]‘s Articles
[陶辉]‘s Articles
[王艳君]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.