globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6401717
论文题名:
基于后悔理论的北极航线安全评价
其他题名: On the safety evaluation of the arctic route based on the regret theory
作者: 刘同超; 李振福; 陈卓
刊名: 安全与环境学报
ISSN: 1009-6094
出版年: 2018
卷: 18, 期:6, 页码:496-502
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 安全工程 ; 安全评价 ; 后悔理论 ; 北极航线
英文关键词: safety engineering ; safety evaluation ; regret theory ; arctic route
WOS学科分类: PUBLIC ENVIRONMENTAL OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
WOS研究方向: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
中文摘要: 近年来随着全球变暖,北极航线的开发利用逐渐成为可能,而北极航线的安全是影响北极航线开发利用的主要因素。为对北极航线的安全进行评价,首先运用模糊层次分析法对北极航线安全的各种影响因素进行分析,划分出北极航线安全结构图。然后根据北极航线的安全特性,综合运用后悔理论和模糊层次分析法对北极航线安全的各种属性值进行计算,得出北极航线安全的状态值。最后,针对北极冰层的变化对北极航线安全进行敏感性分析,有效刻画出北极航线的安全变化。
英文摘要: This paper presents a new evaluation scheme in which the Regret Theory has been coupled with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process in a bid to evaluate the safety of the Arctic Route. Particularly speaking, what we want to achieve is to avoid risks and reduce losses through the application of the Regret Theory in safety. Firstly, based on the various factors that affect the safety of the Arctic Route, we have taken Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to divide the safety structure diagram of Arctic Route into the respective factors. Among them, there can be illustrated as four main ones, that is, man, machine, management, and the natural environment. At the same time, the Regret Theory has been pun into operation to deal with the various data about the safety attributes to get the data of the regret utility, so as to work out the weight of each attribute via the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. And, finally, we have taken the weighted geometric mean method to treat the data of the regret utility and the weight of each attribute so as to get the result of the safety evaluation of the Arctic Route. The results of the aforementioned investigation and tests indicate that the natural environment should be of vital importance in determining the safety of the Arctic Route. Nevertheless, further sensitivity analysis has made us realize that the changes of the Arctic ice layer may hurt and affect the safety of the Arctic Route, for the natural environment would be exercising a diminishing influence on the safety of the Arctic Route navigation with other influential factors being gradually aggravated. For example, with the tendency of warming up of the undergoing tendency of climate warming-up, it would be possible for the Arctic Route to become a more safety route in the future, though there may still remain potential safety hazards. Therefore, in order to ensure the safety of vessels sailing through the region, it is necessary to prepare for corresponding safeguard measures, such as, enhancing the safety awareness of the relevant people working and living in the region while offering privilege to the monitoring activities in protecting the natural environment over there, so as to heighten the equipment quality and infrastructure construction to speed up a comprehensive development and construction of the Arctic Route management system.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153699
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院, 大连, 辽宁 116026, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘同超,李振福,陈卓. 基于后悔理论的北极航线安全评价[J]. 安全与环境学报,2018-01-01,18(6):496-502
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