globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6229813
论文题名:
环青海湖地区气候变化特征及其季风环流因素
其他题名: Temporal Change Characteristics of Climatic and Its Relationships with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Qinghai Lake Basin
作者: 丁之勇; 鲁瑞洁; 刘畅; 段晨曦
刊名: 地球科学进展
ISSN: 1001-8166
出版年: 2018
卷: 33, 期:3, 页码:533-541
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 青海湖 ; 气候变化 ; 东亚夏季风 ; M-K 检验 ; R/S 分析
英文关键词: Qinghai Lake ; Climate change ; East Asia Summer Monsoon ; Mann-Kendall test ; R/S analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于青海湖流域及其周边地区11个气象站点19592015年逐月气温和降水数据,采用 Mann-Kendall趋势分析、突变分析、Morlet连续小波变换、Pearson相关分析和R/S分析等方法,分析了平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和降水的年、季变化特征及其季风环流影响因素,并探讨了该区域未来气候变化的总体趋势。研究结果表明: ①环青海湖地区气温和降水总体上呈现出显著增加的趋势,秋季和冬季的平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温上升速率以及夏季和冬季降水增加速率最为明显。②气温和降水均存在较为明显的突变现象,气温突变时间普遍在1986年左右,而降水突变时间在2002年左右;研究区气温普遍存在2~3年的短周期,8~10年和30~32年的中长周期变化,而降水则存在着3~4年、6~ 7年的短周期和30 ~ 32年的长周期变化。③东亚夏季风指数对研究区秋季气温和夏季降水具有较大的影响,而印度夏季风主要影响了研究区春季气温和降水;北极涛动指数(AO)对研究区秋季和冬季气温的上升影响最大,对春季、夏季和冬季降水的影响也明显高于其他指数;北大西洋涛动指数(NAO)和厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)对研究区气温影响较小,NAO主要影响夏季和冬季降水,而ENSO主要影响秋季降水。④研究区年均气温和年降水的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明研究区气温和降水在未来一段时间内仍以上升趋势为主。
英文摘要: Based on monthly meteorological data from 11 stations(1959-2015) in Qinghai Basin(QHB) and its surrounding area,we analyzed monthly average temperature(Tmean) ,average maximum(TXam) ,minimum temperature(TNam) and precipitation variation characteristics as well as the influence of atmospheric oscillation on these parameters using Mann-Kendall trend analysis,mutation analysis,continuous Morlet wavelet transform,Pearson correlation analysis and R/S analysis method. In addition,the future trend of climate change in the regional scale was also discussed. We found that the temperature and precipitation increment were obvious in the region,especially the Tmean in autumn,winter,TXam and TNam in summer and winter precipitation showing significant increase. Temperature and precipitation experienced abrupt changes around 1986 and 2002,respectively. The period of oscillation of each temperature indices was similar featuring 2~3 years,8 ~10 years short-cycle and 30~32 years middle-cycle,while that for the precipitation featured 3~4 years,6 ~7 years short-cycle and 30~32 years middlecycle. The East Asian Summer Monsoon Index(EASMI) anomaly is an important factor for the anomaly of autumn temperature and summer precipitation in QHB,while the Indian Summer Monsoon Index(ISMI) mainly affects the spring temperature and precipitation in the research area. The effects of Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) were relatively strong on temperature variation,especially in autumn and winter,and AO had significant effect on the precipitation in spring,summer and winter,too. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and ENSO have weak influence on the study area,NAO mainly affects summer and winter precipitation,while ENSO mainly affects autumn precipitation. The Hurst index of Tmean and annual precipitation in QHB are higher than 0.5,indicating that the temperature and precipitation in the study area will continue to be the positive trend in the future period.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/153930
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 北京师范大学地理科学学部, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国

Recommended Citation:
丁之勇,鲁瑞洁,刘畅,等. 环青海湖地区气候变化特征及其季风环流因素[J]. 地球科学进展,2018-01-01,33(3):533-541
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