globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6189520
论文题名:
气候变化下三明市主要针叶树种潜在地理分布的预测
其他题名: Prediction of geographical distribution of main conifer species under climate change in Sanming City
作者: 张今朝1; 刘健1; 余坤勇1; 曾琪1; 郑文英1; 艾婧文2; 上官莎逸2
刊名: 福建农林大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 1671-5470
出版年: 2018
卷: 47, 期:1, 页码:549-558
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 针叶树种 ; 气候变化 ; MaxEnt模型 ; 适宜性
英文关键词: coniferous species ; climate change ; MaxEnt model ; climate suitability
WOS学科分类: FORESTRY
WOS研究方向: Forestry
中文摘要: 以三明市主要针叶树种(杉木和马尾松)为研究对象,利用树种分布点数据和19个气候环境数据,基于MaxEnt模型模拟现实气候条件下杉木和马尾松在三明市的适宜分布区,以及未来气候变化情景下(2050和2070年)杉木和马尾松分布格局的变化,以受试者工作特征曲线评价模型结果,并运用刀切法确定影响杉木和马尾松分布的主要环境因子.结果表明: MaxEnt模型预测结果精度较高(AUC值均大于0.9),最湿季降水量、最冷季降水量、等温性是限制其分布的主要气候因子.杉木和马尾松的适宜生境主要分布在研究区的中西部和中部,面积分别占研究区的39.00%和31.63%;在未来气候情景下,杉木和马尾松的生境分布有所变化:到2050年,适宜生境面积分别减少10.06%和6.35%;到2070年,适宜生境面积略有增加,分别增长1.67%和0.65%.
英文摘要: To obtain the suitable habitat region for the main coniferous species,including Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana in Sanming City,curent distribution data for the 2 species and 19 climatic factors were stimulated by MaxEnt model,also to work out distribution patterns in 2050 and 2070. Then prediction results were evaluated by receiver characteristic curve and dominant climatic factors were evaluated by knife cutting method. The result showed that prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was overall high,with AUC values being greater than 0.9. The dominant climatic factors were precipitations in both the wettest and coldest seasons,and isothermality which limited distributions of Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana. The central and western region and central part of the study area were the most suitable habitats for Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana,with percentage of area reaching 39% and 31.63%, respectively. From now to 2050,suitable habitat areas for Chinese fir and Pinus massoniana decreased by 10.06% and 6.35%,respectively by 2050. While from now to 2070,suitable habitat areas slightly increased by 1.67% and 0.65%,respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154050
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.福建农林大学林学院
2.福建省资源环境监测与可持续经营利用重点实验室,
3.福建省资源环境监测与可持续经营利用重点实验室, 福州
4.福州, 福建
5.福建 350002
6.350002, 中国
7.福建农林大学园林学院
8.福建省资源环境监测与可持续经营利用重点实验室,
9.福建省资源环境监测与可持续经营利用重点实验室, 福州
10.福州, 福建
11.福建 350002
12.350002, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张今朝,刘健,余坤勇,等. 气候变化下三明市主要针叶树种潜在地理分布的预测[J]. 福建农林大学学报. 自然科学版,2018-01-01,47(1):549-558
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