globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6301074
论文题名:
基于GIS的城市内涝影响因素及多元回归模型研究以上海为例
其他题名: Studies on the Influencing Factors and Multiple Regression Model of Urban Waterlogging Based on GIS A Case of Shanghai,China
作者: 徐艺扬1; 李昆1; 谢玉静1; 凌焕然2; 钱敏蕾3; 王祥荣1; 鲁逸1
刊名: 复旦学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0427-7104
出版年: 2018
卷: 57, 期:2, 页码:549-562
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 内涝 ; 降雨量 ; 数字高程 ; 不透水面 ; 人口密度 ; 排水能力 ; 地理信息系统 ; 多元Logistic回归模型 ; 上海
英文关键词: urban waterlogging ; rainfall ; DEM ; impervious surface ; population density ; drainage capacity ; GIS ; multiple Logistic regression model ; Shanghai
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 全球气候变化引起了极端气候事件的增多,洪涝已成为最主要的相关灾害和世界各大城市共同面对的敏感问题之一.本文以中国特大型城市上海为例,基于历史数据及GIS空间分析,综合研究了上海市的降雨、城市建设用地扩张、人口集聚分布、城市数字高程(DEM)、基础设施排水能力等因素对中心城区暴雨内涝发生的影响,并基于Python中的scikit-learn机器学习模块构建了多元Logistic回归模型,根据以上因素对内涝是否发生进行判别,模型准确率达到90%以上.研究表明,上海市中心城区DEM、不透水面分布和人口分布显著影响其暴雨时的内涝发生率.
英文摘要: Flooding and waterlogging have become one of the optimal-related disasters and one of the most sensitive issues in the world,while global climate change has led to an increase in extreme events.By taking the city of Shanghai,China as an example,the influencing factors and multiple regression model of urban waterlogging were studied in this paper,based on GIS techniques and modeling methods.The historical data and GIS spatial analysis, precipitation,urban construction lands expansion,population distribution,digital elevation model (DEM), infrastructure drainability and other factors were analyzed in the study to carry out a conclusion of the impacts of these factors on rainstorm waterlogging in downtown Shanghai.Meanwhile a multiple logistic regression model was constructed based on the scikit-learn machine learning module in Python,which was used to judge the occurrence of flood-waterlog according to the above factors,and the accuracy rate was above 90%.The results showed that the DEM,impervious surface distribution and population distribution of downtown in Shanghai significantly affect the incidence of rainstorm waterlogging.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154052
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200433, 中国
2.复凌科技(上海)有限公司, 上海 200438, 中国
3.常熟市虞山镇兴福管理区, 常熟, 江苏 215500, 中国

Recommended Citation:
徐艺扬,李昆,谢玉静,等. 基于GIS的城市内涝影响因素及多元回归模型研究以上海为例[J]. 复旦学报. 自然科学版,2018-01-01,57(2):549-562
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