globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6236045
论文题名:
气温突变下内蒙古大兴安岭林区旱涝演变
其他题名: Occurrence of Drought and Flooding Affected by Abrupt Temperature Change in Daxinganling Forest in Inner Mongolia
作者: 边玉明1; 代海燕2; 张秋良1; 王冰1; 江鹏3; 吕竟斌4
刊名: 灌溉排水学报
ISSN: 1672-3317
出版年: 2018
卷: 37, 期:4, 页码:5745-5760
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气温突变 ; 大兴安岭林区 ; 标准化降水指数 ; 旱涝演变
英文关键词: abrupt temperature change ; Daxinganling forest region ; Standardized Precipitation Index ; drought and flood evolution
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 【目的】探明内蒙古大兴安岭林区气候变化趋势及旱涝演变特征。【方法】基于内蒙古大兴安岭林区11个气象站19712015年年平均气温和月降水连续观测数据,利用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall法以及标准化降水指数(SPI)方法进行了研究。【结果】①内蒙古大兴安岭林区年降水量在近19712015年来整体呈波动上升趋势,年际变化倾斜率为8.86 mm/10 a,但未通过显著性检验;年平均气温也呈上升趋势,并且通过0.001的显著性水平检验,年际变化率为0.4 ℃/10 a;②林区年平均气温在1987年发生增温突变,气温突变以后年降水量倾向率明显减小;③ 19712015年来林区旱涝频繁发生,20世纪70年代与21世纪00年代SPI12多小于0,这2个时期干旱发生较为频繁,而20世纪80年代至90年代以及21世纪10年代降水较多,这2个时期相对湿润,旱灾发生频率较低。【结论】 1987年增温突变以后,林区旱涝事件发生更加频繁,并呈向极端干旱和极端湿润的方向发展;年时间尺度的SPI反映林区降水变化情况比较理想。
英文摘要: 【Objective】This paper aims to analyze the change in occurrence of drought and flooding in Daxing anling forest in Inner Mongolia due to climate change and to provide baseline for studying the occurrence of drought and flooding, as well as ecological restoration and disaster prevention.【Method】Based on the measured average daily temperature and precipitation from 1971 to 2015 in this region, we analyzed their relationship using linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test (Mann-Kendall) method and the standardized precipitation index(SPI). 【Result】①The annual precipitation showed an rising trend over the past 45years, with an increasing rate of 8.9 mm per decade although the increase was insignificant (failed the significant test). The annual mean temperature also showed a rising trend at significant level (p<0.001) with a rising rate of 0.4 ℃ per decade. ②The annual mean temperature in the forest area endured an sudden change in 1988, followed by a decrease in annual precipitation. ③ In the past 45 years, forest drought occurred frequently and in the 1970s and early 2000s, the value of SPI12 was less than 0. In the 1980s and 1990s and 2010s, however, there was a rise in precipitation, reducing the drought frequency.【Conclusion】Following the abrupt change in temperature in 1987, the forest areas saw an increase in both drought and waterlogging, becoming either extremely dry or wet. The SPI at annual scale reflects the change in precipitation in the region.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154176
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.内蒙古农业大学林学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010010, 中国
2.内蒙古生态与农业气象中心, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010051, 中国
3.河北小五台山国家级自然保护区, 蔚县, 河北 075700, 中国
4.赤峰市元宝山区林业局, 赤峰, 内蒙古 024076, 中国

Recommended Citation:
边玉明,代海燕,张秋良,等. 气温突变下内蒙古大兴安岭林区旱涝演变[J]. 灌溉排水学报,2018-01-01,37(4):5745-5760
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