globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6402101
论文题名:
基于Budyko假设的若尔盖流域径流变化归因分析
其他题名: The attribution analysis of streamflow changes in the Zoige basin based on the Budyko hypothesis
作者: 赵娜娜1; 王贺年2; 于一雷2; 徐卫刚2
刊名: 南水北调与水利科技
ISSN: 1672-1683
出版年: 2018
卷: 16, 期:6, 页码:613-631
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 若尔盖流域 ; 径流 ; 气候变化 ; 流域特征参数 ; 归因分析
英文关键词: the Zoige basin ; streamflow ; climate change ; catchment characteristic parameter ; attribution analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 变化环境下的水文循环研究是当今水科学研究的热点之一,研究流域水文过程变化的响应机制,对未来流域水资源规划及管理具有重要的现实意义。以若尔盖流域为研究区域,基于Budyko假设理论,应用敏感性分析方法,对若尔盖流域径流变化进行归因分析,结果表明:若尔盖流域径流对降水、潜在蒸散发和流域特征参数的敏感性系数分别为0.645 1、-0.234 7和-182.205 0,即若尔盖流域降水每增加1mm将导致流域径流增加0.645 1mm,潜在蒸散发每增加1mm将导致流域径流减少0.234 7mm,流域特征参数每增加1将导致流域径流减少182.205 0mm;若尔盖流域逐年径流呈明显的下降趋势,与基准期(1960-1990年)相比,变化期(1991-2011年)径流量减少了56.23mm (20.48%),其主要影响因素为流域下垫面特征的变化,其贡献率可达93.46%,而气候变化的影响仅占5.57%。
英文摘要: The hydrologic cycle research under changing environment is one of the hot topics in water science study.The study on the response mechanism to hydrological process changes is of great practical significance to future water resources planning and management. In this study,based on the Budyko hypothesis,we conducted attribution analysis of the streamflow changes in the Zoige basin by sensitivity analysis,and the results showed that:the sensitivity coefficients of streamflow to precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and catchment characteristic parameter were 0.654 1,-0.234 7,and-182.205 0,respectively,which means that every 1mm increase in precipitation would induce a 0.654 1mm increase in streamflow;every 1mm increase in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 0.234 7mm decrease in streamflow;every increase of 1in the catchment characteristic parameter would induce a 182.205 0mm decrease in streamflow.The streamflow of the Zoige basin showed a significantly decreasing trend.Compared with the reference period (1960-1990),the streamflow of the change period(1991-2011)decreased by 56.23mm(20.48%).The main influence factor was the change of underlying surface characteristics,whose contribution rate reached 93.46%.The climate change only contributed 5..57%.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154431
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国林业科学研究院湿地研究所
2.湿地生态功能与恢复北京市重点实验室
3.中国水利水电科学研究院,
4.湿地生态功能与恢复北京市重点实验室
5.流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,
6., 北京
7.北京
8.北京 100091
9.100091
10.100038, 中国
11.中国林业科学研究院湿地研究所
12.湿地生态功能与恢复北京市重点实验室,
13.湿地生态功能与恢复北京市重点实验室,
14., 北京
15.北京 100091
16.100091, 中国

Recommended Citation:
赵娜娜,王贺年,于一雷,等. 基于Budyko假设的若尔盖流域径流变化归因分析[J]. 南水北调与水利科技,2018-01-01,16(6):613-631
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