globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6394934
论文题名:
基于1961-2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征评估
其他题名: Assessment of Drought Characteristics in Yunnan Province Based on SPI and SPEI from 1961 to 2100
作者: 刘小刚; 冷险险; 孙光照; 彭有亮; 黄一峰; 杨启良
刊名: 农业机械学报
ISSN: 1000-1298
出版年: 2018
卷: 49, 期:12, 页码:61-68
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 标准化降水指标 ; 标准化降水蒸发指标 ; 非超越概率 ; 游程理论 ; 云南省
英文关键词: climate change ; standardized precipitation index ; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index ; non-exceedance probability ; runs theory ; Yunan Province
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 干旱是一个缓慢发展持续时间长的极端气候事件,而气候变化对干旱的影响尤为显著,评估气候变化对云南省干旱特征的影响尤为重要.使用多时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析了云南省的干旱状况,运用非超越概率和游程理论分别分析了SPI和SPEI的季节性变化和研究区域内的干旱特征.结果表明: 1961-1995年冬季SPEI(1)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率为5.2%,但在2066-2100年增加到18.4%;SPEI(6)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率从4.4%增加到21.4%,SPEI(24)从7.0%增加到25.7%.表明由于气候变化,未来有可能发生严重干旱,且中长期干旱比短期干旱更严重.气候变化在1961-1995年和2066-2100年的冬季和夏季造成严重干旱,且中长期干旱严重程度在整个冬季和夏季尤为明显.将SPI和SPEI的时间序列应用于游程理论,发现1961-1995年SPEI(1)的干旱烈度为28.3,到2066-2100年达到60.9,表明气候变化使未来干旱加剧.本研究结果对云南省干旱预测、评估及其风险管理和应用决策具有指导性和实用性,同时可为未来旱作农业生态管理提供一定的依据.
英文摘要: Drought is an extreme climate event with long duration of slow development, and the impact of climate change on drought is particularly significant, drought has become a global problem in a changing climate. Assessing the impact of climate change on the drought characteristics of Yunnan Province is particularly important. The drought conditions in Yunnan Province were analyzed by using the multi-time scale standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The seasonal variation of two indexes and the characteristics of drought in the region were analyzed by using non-exceedance probability and runs theory, respectively. The results showed that the non-exceedance probability of SPEI (1) below and equal to -1.0 in the winter of 1961-1995 was 5.2%, and it was increased to 18.4% from 2066 to 2100; the non-exceedance probability of SPEI (6) below and equal to -1.0 was increased from 4.4% to 21.4%, SPEI (24) was increased from 7.0% to 25.7%. It was showed that due to climate change, serious droughts may occur in the future, and the medium and long-term droughts were more serious than short-term droughts. Severe droughts caused by climate change during the winter and summer periods from 1961 to 1995 and from 2066 to 2100, and the severity of medium- and long-term droughts was particularly strong during winter and summer. SPI and SPEI time series were applied to the runs theory and it was found that the drought intensity determined by SPEI (1) from 1961 to 1995 was 28.3, which reached 60.9 by 2066 to 2100, indicating that the climate changes had exacerbated the future drought. The results were instructive and practical for drought prediction and assessment in Yunnan Province, as well as its risk management and application decisions. At the same time, it can provide a scientific reference for the future dry farming ecological management and drought evolution prediction.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154460
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 昆明理工大学现代农业工程学院, 昆明, 云南 650500, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘小刚,冷险险,孙光照,等. 基于1961-2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征评估[J]. 农业机械学报,2018-01-01,49(12):61-68
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