globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6326383
论文题名:
气候变化影响下作物模型的不确定性
其他题名: Uncertainty of crop models under influence of climate change
作者: 杨伟才; 毛晓敏
刊名: 排灌机械工程学报
ISSN: 1674-8530
出版年: 2018
卷: 36, 期:9, 页码:61-72
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 作物生长模型 ; 气候变化 ; 不确定性 ; 模型-数据融合 ; 遥感
英文关键词: crop growth model ; climate change ; uncertainty ; model-data fusion ; remote sensing
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 作物生理生长过程准确描述及产量的精确估计在社会食品安全和农业生产中起着至关重要的作用.作物生长模型作为一种监测作物生长的数值模拟方法,已被证明是作物生长、产量预测和情景分析的有力工具.然而,在当前气候变化背景下,气候走向的不确定性以及极端气候事件的增加,都对粮食生产产生了重大影响,如何对作物生长进行准确模拟成为当前的热点关注话题.同时,除了气候变化的不确定性外,由于作物模型本身是实际作物生长过程的简化,物理结构并不完美,同时数据采集的随机性和初始条件的区域异质性,导致模拟结果不确定性较大.因此,在论述作物模型的国内外研究进展的基础上,探讨气候变化的不确定性对作物模型的影响以及作物模型本身的不确定性,概述了模型-数据融合方法的类型及特点,以及区域尺度上作物模型与遥感数据结合所采用的减小不确定性的方法,以期为相关研究提供一定参考.
英文摘要: Precise description of crop physiological growth process and accurate estimation of crop yield play a crucial role in social food safety and agricultural production. As a numerical simulation method for monitoring crop growth,the crop growth model has proven a powerful tool for crop growth analysis, yield simulation and scenario prediction. However,under the current background of climate change, the uncertainty of climate trend and the increase of extreme weather events have affected grain production largely. Therefore,how to simulate crop growth accurately under the climate change scenario has become a hot topic currently. Except the uncertainty of climate change,crop models are a simplified form of actual crop growth process. Thus these models have an imperfect physical structure. Additionally, randomness in data collection and regional heterogeneity of initial conditions can lead to poorer uncertainty in simulation results. Hence,based on a review of the state of crop models in China and abroad,the uncertainty of crop models and the impact of uncertainty of climate change on the models were discussed. Then,the types and characteristics of model-data fusion methods were outlined. The methods used to reduce the uncertainty of crop models in a regional scale were summarized.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154467
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 北京 100083, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨伟才,毛晓敏. 气候变化影响下作物模型的不确定性[J]. 排灌机械工程学报,2018-01-01,36(9):61-72
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