globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6326440
论文题名:
多模式多情景下西北内陆干旱区未来气候变化预估
其他题名: Multi-model projections of future climate change under different RCP scenarios in arid inland region of north China
作者: 颜楚睿1; 刘浏1; 黄冠华1
刊名: 排灌机械工程学报
ISSN: 1674-8530
出版年: 2018
卷: 36, 期:11, 页码:61-72
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 降尺度 ; 集合预估 ; 不确定性 ; 黑河
英文关键词: climate change ; downscaling ; ensemble projection ; uncertainty ; Heihe
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 基于排放情景RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5,采用站点实测资料、ERA - 40再分析资料以及从23种大气环流模式中优选的5种大气环流模式数据,构建统计降尺度模型SDSM,预估中国西北内陆干旱地区黑河流域的未来(20212050年)日最高、最低气温以及降水情景.结果表明:构建的降尺度模型对黑河流域气温模拟效果较好,率定期及验证期中的决定系数R~2和纳什效率系数NSE均在0.900以上,均方根误差RMSE整体控制在实测值的20%内;降水模拟效果较气温而言略差,但除下游沙漠地区模拟效果一般外,其余地区模拟结果的R~2及NSE均在0.500以上.未来情景预估结果表明:较基准期(19762005年)而言,未来3种排放情景下仅1种模式模拟的降水量整体呈下降趋势,其余4种模式模拟的结果有增有减,年降水量变化幅度大多在 10%以内;不同季节、月份间的降水量变幅差异性更为显著,且大多模式显示出夏季降水减少,春季降水增多的现象;所有模式模拟的未来最高、最低气温较基准期而言均呈上升趋势,最高气温增幅大于最低气温增幅,且气温增幅随典型浓度目标值提升而升高.
英文摘要: Based on three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5),a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established by using observed meteorological data,ERA - 40 reanalysis data and 5 preferred GCMs output selected from 23 GCMs of CMIP5. Then,the climate change scenarios were predicted,including daily precipitation,highest and lowest ambient temperatures during 20212050 in the Heihe River basin,where is the second largest inland river basin in northwest China. The results show that the SDSM has a good predicting capacity for the ambient temperature in the basin. During calibration and validation periods,the coefficient of determination (R~2) and the coefficient of Nash - Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) are both larger than 0.9,while the root mean square error (RMSE) is less than 20%. However,the SDSM show relatively lower simulation efficiency for precipitation with R~2 and NSE values of above 0.5 in most meteorological stations,except the stations located in the downstream desert areas. Compared with the baseline period (19762005),the annual mean precipitation simulated by different GCMs during 20212050 show a decline globally in one RCP scenario only. In the rest RCP scenarios,however,the precipitation fluctuates in a range of - 10% - + 10%. Specially,the precipitation depends on season and month largely,and it was more in summer but less in spring in most RCP scenarios. Note that the highest and lowest ambient temperatures exhibit a similar increasing tendency during 20212050 under all RCP scenarios. The increment of the highest ambient temperature is lower than the increment of the lowest ambient temperature,especially, both increments rise with increasing concentration of RCP.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154468
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院
2.中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,
3.,
4., 北京
5.北京 100083
6.100083, 中国

Recommended Citation:
颜楚睿,刘浏,黄冠华. 多模式多情景下西北内陆干旱区未来气候变化预估[J]. 排灌机械工程学报,2018-01-01,36(11):61-72
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