基于ISI-MIP(The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project)推荐使用的5个全球气候模式数据(HadGEM2-ES,GFDL-ESM2M,MIROC-ESM-CHEM,Nor-ESM1-M,IPSL-CM5ALR),驱动SWIM(Soil and Water Integrated Model)水文模型,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下淮河上游干流径流量变化,得出结论:(1)淮河上游干流径流量年际变化在2种升温情景下均呈先减小后增加趋势。全球升温1.5℃时年径流量较基准期(19862005年)增长9.5%,而升温2.0℃情景下涨幅更明显,高达17%。(2) 4个季节径流量在2种升温情景下较基准期均有增长,其中春季涨幅最明显,达24.4%,夏、秋、冬季涨幅分别为7.1%、16.1%、13.5%。全球升温2.0℃时淮河上游干流径流量在4个季节较基准期增长率均大于全球升温1.5℃时。(3)不同气候模式输出日径流量最大值相差较大而平均值相差较小。未来2种升温情景日径流量超过王家坝闸设计流量的日次较基准期均有增加,尤其升温2.0℃情景较基准期增多22次,较升温1.5℃情景多5.8次,表明未来升温2.0℃情景下淮河上游出现极端径流事件的可能性进一步增大。
英文摘要:
Based on five global climate model data recommended by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), the changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River were analyzed. The research results show as follows: the interannual variation of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River decreased first and then increased under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. The annual runoff at the global warming of 1.5℃ will increase by 9.5% relative to the reference period (1986-2005), while the increase under global warming of 2.0℃ is even more pronounced, reaching 17%. Secondly runoff in four seasons has an increase compared to the reference period under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, and the spring runoff rises the most, reaching 24.4%, and the summer, autumn, and winter gains are 7.1%, 16.1%, and 13.5%, respectively. Under global warming of 2.0℃, the rate of increase of runoff in mainstream of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River in the four seasons is larger than under the global warming of 1.5℃. Finally, the maximum daily runoff of different global climate models differs greatly from each other while the average difference is small. Under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, the number of days with daily flow exceeding the design flow of the Wangjiaba sluice, increases compared with the reference period, especially under global warming of 2.0℃, which is 22 times more than the reference period and 5.8 times more than under global warming of 1.5℃.