globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6373209
论文题名:
全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中国东南沿海致灾气旋的时空变化
其他题名: SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF HAZARD-INDUCING TROPICAL CYCLONES UNDER THE 1.5℃ AND 2.0℃ GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS IN SOUTHEAST COASTAL CHINA
作者: 陈雪1; 苏布达2; 温姗姗3; 姜彤4; 高超5; 王艳君6; 翟建青4
刊名: 热带气象学报
ISSN: 1004-4965
出版年: 2018
卷: 34, 期:5, 页码:628-636
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃ ; 致灾气旋 ; 时空变化 ; CCLM模式 ; 东南沿海地区
英文关键词: global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ ; hazard-inducing tropical cyclones ; spatiotemporal distribution ; regional climate model CCLM ; southeast coastal China
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 将造成经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋.基于气象观测站的逐日气压、风速和降水量数据确定致灾气旋阈值,结合区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)在1961-2100年的输出资料,预估致灾气旋发生频数及其风速与降水量,分析全球升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃情景下,中国东南沿海地区致灾气旋时空变化特征.结果表明:(1) 1986-2015年,东南沿海地区致灾气旋发生频数共计180个,整体呈上升趋势,平均风速和降水量分别为8.7 m/s和129.8 mm,对浙江东部及广东东部沿海影响最严重.(2)全球升温1.5 ℃,2020-2039年致灾气旋频数将由基准期(1986-2005年)的111个上升至138个,增加区域主要位于广东省西南地区及福建省南部地区;平均风速和降水量分别上升15%和17%,至8.4 m/s和109.9 mm,以福建省沿海地区增加最明显.(3)全球升温2.0 ℃,2040-2059年致灾气旋频数较1986-2005年增加33%,将达148个;风速上升32%,以浙江省东部、福建和广东省接壤的沿海地区及广东省南部增幅最大;降水量上升35%,以福建与广东省接壤的沿海地区及广东省西南地区增加明显.(4)相比升温1.5 ℃,全球气温额外升高0.5 ℃,东南沿海地区致灾气旋频数及其风速与降水量将分别上升9%、17%和18%.努力将温升控制在1.5 ℃,对降低致灾气旋频率和强度增加所导致的影响具有重要意义.
英文摘要: Based on the data of tropical cyclones (TCs) in China for 1986-2015,TCs that caused economic losses are defined as hazard-inducing TCs. The threshold of hazard-inducing TCs in southeastern coastal China is determined through observed daily air pressure, wind speed and precipitation data from meteorological stations. Subsequently, the frequency, wind speed and precipitation of hazard-inducing TCs are predicted by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM), and their spatiotemporal variations are analyzed under the 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios relative to the baseline period of 1986-2005. Research results are shown as follows: (1) The frequency of hazard-inducing TCs in southeast coastal China shows an increasing trend from 1986 to 2005. Observed average wind speed and precipitation are 8.7 m/s and 129.8 mm, respectively. The influenced areas are mainly distributed in the east of Zhejiang province and the east coast of Guangdong province. (2) Under the 1.5 ℃ warming scenario of 2020-2039,the frequency of hazard-inducing TCs will increase by 24% relative to 1986-2005, and the increase is mainly distributed in the southwest part of Guangdong and the southern part of Fujian. Meanwhile, wind speed and precipitation by TCs will increase by 15% and 17%, respectivley, which is most significant in the coastal areas of Fujian. (3) Under the 2.0 ℃ warming scenario of 2040-2059, the frequency of hazard-inducing TCs will increase by 33% relative to the reference period of 1986-2005, and wind speed will increase by 32%. Precipitation will increase by 35%, with the neighboring area of coastal Fujian and Guangdong and t he southwest Guangdong having the largest growth rate. (4) With the global temperature increase from 1.5 ℃to 2.0℃,the frequency of hazard-inducing TCs will continue to rise, and the accompanying wind speed and precipitation might also increase by 17% and 18%, respectively. The aforementioned findings revealed that the frequency, wind speed, precipitation and influential area of hazard-inducing TCs in the southeastern coast of China will increase with the rising of temperature. It is significant to control global temperature increase below 1.5 ℃ for reducing the adverse effects of hazard-inducing TCs.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154541
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.黑龙江省气象灾害防御技术中心, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150000, 中国
2.南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院
3.中国气象局国家气候中心
4.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
5.荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 南京
6.乌鲁木齐, 江苏
7.北京
8.新疆 210044
9.100081
10.830011, 中国
11.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
12.中国科学院大学, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室
13., 乌鲁木齐
14., 新疆
15.北京 830011
16.100049, 中国
17.南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院
18.中国气象局国家气候中心, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
19., 南京
20., 江苏
21.北京 210044
22.100081, 中国
23.宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系, 宁波, 浙江 315211, 中国
24.南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陈雪,苏布达,温姗姗,等. 全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中国东南沿海致灾气旋的时空变化[J]. 热带气象学报,2018-01-01,34(5):628-636
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