globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6362338
论文题名:
天山北坡奎屯河流域径流模拟及对气候变化的敏感性分析
其他题名: Discharge Simulation and Sensitivity to Climate Change of the Kuytun River Basin on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains,China
作者: 赵琳林1; 孙美平2; 孙皓1; 巩宁刚1; 闫露霞1
刊名: 山地学报
ISSN: 1008-2786
出版年: 2018
卷: 36, 期:5, 页码:632-640
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 月径流模拟 ; 敏感性分析 ; 冰川储量 ; BP人工神经网络 ; 奎屯河流域
英文关键词: monthly discharge simulation ; sensitivity analysis ; glacier volume ; BP artificial neural network ; Kuytun River Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 利用乌苏气象站和将军庙水文站19642009年气象与水文数据,将月径流分为消融期和非消融期进行研究,并结合第一和第二次冰川编目数据以及19792009年分辨率为0.1° * 0.1°的CMFD数据,基于BP人工神经网络模型对新疆天山北麓奎屯河流域消融期月径流进行模拟及气候变化的敏感性分析,结果表明:(1)奎屯河流域年径流量总体呈上升趋势,消融期径流增速与年径流增速十分接近,非消融期径流变化不甚显著。(2)通过对比分析,发现将气温、降水、日照时数、风速和相对湿度等五种气象要素作为输入的神经网络模型性能最佳。根据两次冰川编目的冰川储量变化值确定的5 - 7 - 1结构的BP人工神经网络模拟结果较好,可用于奎屯河流域径流模拟。(3)奎屯河流域消融期径流对气温、降水和日照时数的敏感性较高,对相对湿度和风速的敏感性较低,除风速其他四个要素对径流均起促进作用。降水不变,气温升高0.5℃、1℃和2℃时,径流分别较20002009年消融期月径流平均值增加4.62%、9.13%和18.30%;气温不变,降水增加10%时,径流将增加9.78%。气温和降水同时作用时,径流增加幅度明显高于仅气温或仅降水作用下的情景。
英文摘要: The discharges during the ablation and non-ablation periods of the Kuytun River Basin were analyzed by using the meteorological data from Usu Meteorological Station and hydrological data from Jiangjunmiao Hydrological Station during 19642009. Combined with the data from the First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventories and the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset ( CMFD) with the resolution of 0.1° * 0.1°,the discharge during ablation period was simulated using the BP artificial neural network,and the sensitivity analysis of climate change was examined. The results showed that: ( 1) The annual discharge from the Kuytun River Basin presented an generally increasing trend. The trend magnitude of discharge during ablation period was close to the annual value. There was no significant trend during the non-ablation period. ( 2) The comparative analysis indicated that the BP artificial neural network model showed a best performance when the five meteorological elements ( air temperature, precipitation amount,sunshine duration,wind speed and relative humidity) were applied as input data. The best structure of BP artificial neural network model was 5-7-1,which was determined by the change of glacier volume of the First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventories. ( 3 ) The air temperature,precipitation amount,sunshine duration and relative humidity during the ablation period of the Kuytun River Basin all played important roles in promoting discharge,but the wind speed was the opposite. The discharge was more sensitive to air temperature, precipitation amount and sunshine duration. The discharge will rise by 4.62%,9.13% and 18.30% relative to the mean value during 2000 - 2009,when precipitation amount remains stable and air temperature rises by 0.5 ℃, 1 ℃ and 2 ℃,respectively. When air temperature keeps constant and precipitation amount rises by 10%,the discharge will rise by 9.78%. When air temperature and precipitation amount change simultaneously,the increase of discharge will be significantly higher than that if only air temperature or precipitation amount changes.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154558
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国
2.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院
3.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,
4.冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州
5.兰州,
6.730070
7.730000

Recommended Citation:
赵琳林,孙美平,孙皓,等. 天山北坡奎屯河流域径流模拟及对气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 山地学报,2018-01-01,36(5):632-640
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