globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6214918
论文题名:
菏泽市气象灾害风险评估与区划研究
其他题名: Study on Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Climatic Zoning in Heze City
作者: 陈楠
刊名: 山东农业大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 1000-2324
出版年: 2018
卷: 49, 期:2, 页码:6344-6354
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 菏泽市 ; 气象灾害 ; 风险区划
英文关键词: GIS ; Heze City ; meteorological disasters ; GIS ; risk zoning
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 在气候变化背景下,气象灾害频繁发生。本文以菏泽市的历史气象数据和气象灾害灾情数据为基本资料,建立菏泽市气象灾害风险评价指标体系,并对菏泽市的气象灾害进行风险区划,以期达到趋利避害、防灾减灾的目的,为菏泽市气象灾害防御提供了科技支撑和理论支持。根据菏泽市7县2区1971~2016年的地面气象观测资料和菏泽市的气象灾害灾情数据,对菏泽市气象灾害的发生频率、发生强度及发生地点进行了统计分析,并考虑了致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境和承灾体易损性以及防灾减灾能力等因素,结合GIS系统,得出菏泽市暴雨、高温、雷电、冰雹和大风致灾因子危险性分布图以及菏泽市气象灾害综合风险区划图。区划所使用的方法为专家打分法、层次分析法、气象灾害风险指数法和加权综合评分法等。研究结果表明:菏泽市气象灾害综合风险程度较高的县区主要分布在牡丹区、巨野县;风险程度相对较小的县区主要分布在成武县、单县;其它县属于中等风险区。
英文摘要: Meteorological disasters occurred frequently against the background of climate change. This paper takes the historical meteorological and disaster data of Heze as the basic information to establish a risk assessment index system of Heze meteorological disasters. Risk zoning is implemented for the meteorological disaster of Heze. The purpose of this research is to draw on advantages, avoid disadvantages and preventing disasters, which provides scientific foundation and theoretical support for the meteorological disaster prevention. According to the surface meteorological observation data and the disaster data in 1971-2016 of 7 counties and 2 districts of Heze, the location, frequency, and intensity of meteorological disasters were statistically analyzed in the study. Also, the risk of disaster-causal factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, disaster-forming environments, and the abilities of disaster prevention and mitigation are considered. The risk distribution map for disaster-causal factors(rainstorm, high temperature, lightning, hail and wind) and the comprehensive risk zoning map for meteorological disasters are obtained combining the GIS system. In zoning, the expert grading method, analytic hierarchy process, meteorological disaster risk index method, and weighted comprehensive scoring method are used. The results show that the risk level of meteorological disaster is higher in Mudan and Juye counties, relatively lower in Chengwu and Shanxian counties, and medium in other areas.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154563
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 山东省菏泽市气象局, 菏泽, 山东 274000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陈楠. 菏泽市气象灾害风险评估与区划研究[J]. 山东农业大学学报. 自然科学版,2018-01-01,49(2):6344-6354
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