为了科学评价未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量的影响,将福建省划分为3个稻区,选取66个样点,7个代表性品种,以及2种典型浓度路径(中端稳定路径RCP4.5和高端路径RCP8.5),利用BCC_CSM(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model)气候模式,基于这2种典型浓度路径情景RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)下的气候预估结果,结合作物生长模型CERES-Rice,分雨养与灌溉两种情形,模拟分析气候变化对水稻生产的影响。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下福建省各站点水稻生育期将明显缩短,生育期内平均温度均有所升高;不考虑CO_2肥效作用时,无论早稻、后季稻、单季稻,其产量相对于基准年份均普遍减产,减产幅度不超过12%,其中雨养水稻的减产幅度略高于灌溉水稻;不同情景下水稻产量变化也有所差别,其中RCP8.5情景下水稻的减产幅度明显大于RCP4.5情景;而在考虑CO_2肥效作用时,模拟结果比较乐观,各研究站点普遍表现为增产,最大增产幅度可达15.2%。
英文摘要:
To evaluate the impacts of future climate change on rice yields in Fujian Province,this study classified Fujian Province into three rice regions,and chose 66 sites and 7 representative rice varieties as study subject.Based on BCC_CSM (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model) climate model under 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: Stable emission path RCP4.5 and high emission path RCP8.5,we simulated the rice yields with CERES-Rice model under rain-fed and irrigated conditions.The results showed that under the future climate change scenarios,with the increase of average temperature in growth period to some extent,the growth period of rice in Fujian Province would be shortened obviously.Without direct effect of CO_2 elevation,the simulated rice yields would decrease by no more than 12% as compared to the baseline,and the rain-fed rice was slightly worse than irrigated rice.In the meantime,different scenarios have different results,and higher yield decrease was simulated under high emission path RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 climate scenarios.When the fertilization effect of CO_2 was considered,the simulated yields were more optimistic with an increase by 15.2% at most of the study sites.