globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6404714
论文题名:
中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析
其他题名: Analysis on characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall tropical cyclone activities
作者: 张金善1; 殷成团1; 张然2; 熊梦婕1; 王乃瑞1
刊名: 水科学进展
ISSN: 1001-6791
出版年: 2018
卷: 29, 期:6, 页码:681-688
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 热带气旋 ; 风暴潮 ; 气候变化 ; 频数 ; 强度 ; 源地
英文关键词: tropical cyclone ; storm surge ; climate change ; frequency ; strength ; source region
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋(STY和SUPER TY)时间和纬度的关系phi-m。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。
英文摘要: Tropical cyclone (TC) is the most harmful weather system in China,so analyzing and understanding the new characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation.In accordance with the meteorological data of the past 70 years,the characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs are studied by utilizing statistical methods.The results illustrate that there is obviously varying in characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs under the circumstances of climate change.The frequency of landfall typhoon is higher than that of previous years,the intensity and maximum value are increasing and the instability of annual mean intensity is growing in recent years.It is also found that the higher the intensity of TC is,the narrower the latitudinal zone of TC generation is,and the closer it is to the equator.The relationship namedphi-mis established between the time and latitude of high intensity TCs (STY & SUPER TY),and it is verified that the length of typhoon season is negatively correlated with the first cyclone day and is not affected by El Nio phenomenon.The length of typhoon season is conformed to normal distribution and its probability density formula is given in this paper.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154836
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.南京水利科学研究院
2.水利部应对气候变化研究中心,
3.水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 南京
4.南京, 江苏
5.江苏 210024
6.210024, 中国
7.南京大学大气科学系, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张金善,殷成团,张然,等. 中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析[J]. 水科学进展,2018-01-01,29(6):681-688
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