globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6161154
论文题名:
可能最大降水估算研究综述
其他题名: Review of probable maximum precipitation estimation
作者: 林炳章1; 兰平2; 张叶晖1; 林智琛1; 陈晓旸1
刊名: 水利学报
ISSN: 0559-9350
出版年: 2018
卷: 49, 期:1, 页码:685-690
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 可能最大降水 ; 水文气象途径 ; 数值模拟 ; 短历时 ; 不确定性 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) ; hydrometeorological approach ; numerical modeling ; short duration ; uncertainties ; climate change
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 可能最大降水PMP用于推求重要水利水电工程、核电工程和滨海大城市防洪的可能最大洪水.80多年来,国内外已经对可能最大降水估算开展了大量深入的研究.本文比较系统地从统计估算法、当地暴雨放大法、暴雨移置法、概化估算法、暴雨模式法、数值模拟法和多重分形法等方面综述PMP估算方法研究应用现状.对PMP估算研究5个方面的前沿与热点问题:山区暴雨移置、短历时PMP估算、PMP估算的不确定性、气候变化对PMP估算的影响和PMP的概率等进行了阐述.最后展望了PMP估算未来的发展趋势和研究方向.
英文摘要: Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has been used to calculate the probable maximum flood (PMF) in design of important water conservancy and hydropower project, nuclear power project and unban flood prevention planning. A review of PMP estimation methods of statistical method, in-situ storm maximization, storm transposition and generalized method, storm model, numerical modeling, multifractals method, etc. are systematically stated. The frontier and hot issues of PMP estimation are briefly addressed in five topics, including the storm transposition in mountainous areas, short duration PMP estimation, uncertainties associated with PMP estimation, the impact of climate change on PMP and the probability of PMP. The research emphasis and directions of PMP estimation are discussed as well.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154858
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学水文气象学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
2.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
林炳章,兰平,张叶晖,等. 可能最大降水估算研究综述[J]. 水利学报,2018-01-01,49(1):685-690
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