globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6381083
论文题名:
变化环境下时变标准化径流指数的构建与应用
其他题名: Construction of time-dependent drought index under changing environment and its application
作者: 李敏; 李建柱; 冯平; 陈亮
刊名: 水利学报
ISSN: 0559-9350
出版年: 2018
卷: 49, 期:11, 页码:6857-6867
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 变化环境 ; 水文干旱 ; 标准化径流指数 ; 时变标准化径流指数 ; 非一致性
英文关键词: changing environment ; hydrological drought ; Standardized Runoff Index ; Time-dependent Standardized Runoff Index ; non-stationary
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 变化环境下,干旱指数可能表现出非一致性特征。本文假设径流序列为二阶非平稳序列,建立以时间为协变量的时变矩GAMLSS模型,该模型采用非一致性Gamma分布拟合实测径流序列,并基于该模型计算出的时变标准化径流指数SRIt,与传统指数SRI进行对比分析,以验证其合理性与必要性。结果表明:基于时变矩模型的时变标准化径流指数SRIt更适应于潘家口水库流域变化环境下水文干旱的评价。时变标准化径流指数SRIt的值整体上比基于一致性模型的指数SRI偏小,即所表示的干旱程度更加严重,主要是因为时变矩GAMLSS模型能够反映出变化环境下径流序列的变化趋势,该趋势是影响径流的一系列因素共同导致的,如气候变化,人类活动等。而在受这些因素的影响下,潘家口水库流域的水文干旱事件频率增加,严重程度增强。
英文摘要: In a changing environment,the drought index may appear the non-stationary characteristic.In this study,we assuming that the runoff series are second-order non-stationary sequences,a non-stationary model was established and optimized to fit the runoff observations and was used to calculate the Time-dependent Standardized Runoff Index(SRIt)that could reflect the drought characteristics in a river basin.The results show that SRIt based on the non-stationary model is more suitable for the evaluation of hydrological drought in the changing environment of Panjiakou Reservoir watershed.The SRIt value calculated by the non-stationary model is generally smaller than SRI value that calculated by the stationary model,which represents the more seriously drought degree.The main reason is that time-varying moment model can reflect the trend of runoff series under changing environment,which is caused by a series of factors affecting runoff,such as climate change,human activities and so on.Under the influence of these factors,the frequency and severity of hydrological drought events in Panjiakou reservoir basin increased.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154862
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 天津大学, 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300350, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李敏,李建柱,冯平,等. 变化环境下时变标准化径流指数的构建与应用[J]. 水利学报,2018-01-01,49(11):6857-6867
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