globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6324698
论文题名:
1951-2015年西安市大气降水资源趋势分析及预测
其他题名: Trend Analysis and Prediction of Atmospheric Precipitation in Xi'an During 1951-2015
作者: 徐盼盼1; 林涛2; 钱会1; 杨咪1
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2018
卷: 25, 期:5, 页码:692-702
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 可利用降水量 ; 大气降水资源 ; 西安市 ; 逐步回归周期分析
英文关键词: utilizable precipitation ; atmosphere precipitation resource ; Xi' ; an City ; stepwise regressive periodic analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于西安市19512015年逐月降水量和气温资料,依据高桥浩一郎的陆面实际蒸散发经验公式,分析了西安市65 a来大气降水资源的变化特征,采用逐步回归周期分析法对西安市未来10 a大气降水资源的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:西安市年内降水资源分配不均匀,春夏秋三季所占比例高达95%以上,而冬季所占比例很小;从月尺度、季尺度和年尺度看,西安市降水利用率普遍较低,蒸发率普遍较高;西安市温度变化呈上升态势,降水和可利用降水呈减少态势;在全球气候变暖背景下,除了夏季和冬季可利用降水量对偏冷期气候响应不明显,其他时段可利用降水量对不同时期气候响应显著;未来10 a年降水量、年蒸发量和可利用年降水量均以负距平为主,大气降水资源的减少势态可能会持续。
英文摘要: Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of Xi'an City from 1951 to 2015,the characteristics of changes in atmosphere precipitation resource were analyzed by means of Takahashi's evaporation equation.And the trend of the atmosphere precipitation resource for the next ten years was forecasted by using stepwise regression analysis.The results indicated that the distribution of precipitation resource was uneven in Xi'an within the year,and the proportion of spring,summer and autumn was as high as over 95%, while the proportion of winter was very small.On the monthly scale,seasonal scale and annual scale,the utilization rate of precipitation in Xi'an was generally low,and the evaporation rate was generally high.The temperature change in Xi'an was on the rise,and precipitation and utilizable precipitation were decreasing. Under the background of global climatic warming,the response of summer and winter utilizable precipitation was not obvious in the cold climate,while utilizable precipitation of other periods significantly responsed to different period climates.The annual precipitation,annual evaporation and utilizable annual precipitation will be dominated by negative anomaly in the next 10 years.Therefore,the downward trend of atmospheric precipitation may persist.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154907
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.长安大学环境科学与工程学院
2.旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,
3.旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室, 西安
4.西安,
5.710054
6.710054
7.长安大学环境科学与工程学院
8.旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室
9.中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,
10.旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室
11., 西安
12.西安
13.西安,
14.710054
15.710054
16.710075

Recommended Citation:
徐盼盼,林涛,钱会,等. 1951-2015年西安市大气降水资源趋势分析及预测[J]. 水土保持研究,2018-01-01,25(5):692-702
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