globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6214843
论文题名:
基于弹性系数法的径流对气候变化与人类活动响应研究
其他题名: Studying Response of Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities Based on Elastic Coefficient
作者: 莫崇勋1; 阮俞理1; 莫桂燕1; 朱新荣1; 孙桂凯1
刊名: 水文
ISSN: 1000-0852
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:2, 页码:6953-6963
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 弹性系数法 ; 气候变化 ; 人类活动
英文关键词: Mann-Kendall ; Mann-Kendall ; elastic coefficient method ; climate change ; human activity
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 基于永定河流域内1957~2010年降雨、蒸发和径流数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法结合距平序列变化情况分析蒸发能力、降雨和径流的变化趋势;运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Hurst系数法分析流域径流序列的突变年及对应的突变程度;在此基础上以径流突变年为界划分基准期和变化期,采用弹性系数法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,并简要分析其原因。结果表明:流域蒸发能力呈现上升趋势,降雨和径流呈现递减趋势;径流序列突变点发生在1984年,突变程度属中度变异;永定河流域由气候变化引起的径流变化率为28%,而由于人类活动引起的径流变化率为72%,可见人类活动是影响永定河流域径流变化的主要驱动因素。
英文摘要: Accurate assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on watershed runoff is conducive to better management of water resources. Taking the Yongding River Basin as an example,this paper analyzed the trend of evaporation,rainfall and runoff. Mann -Kendall was used to analyze the mutation year and Hurst method was applied to analyze the degree of mutation. On the basis of this, this paper analyzed the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff by using the method of elastic coefficient,and analyzed the reason of the change of runoff. The results indicate that the evaporation show a rising trend,while rainfall and runoff show a decreasing trend. The mutation occurred in 1984,and mutation degree is moderate. And the main influencing factor is the impact of human activities,and its contribution rate is 72%,while the contribution rate of climate change is 28%.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154916
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.广西大学土木建筑工程学院
2.工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室
3.广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,
4.工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室
5.广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室, 南宁
6.南宁
7.南宁, 广西
8.广西
9.广西 530004
10.530004
11.530004, 中国

Recommended Citation:
莫崇勋,阮俞理,莫桂燕,等. 基于弹性系数法的径流对气候变化与人类活动响应研究[J]. 水文,2018-01-01,38(2):6953-6963
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