globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6255040
论文题名:
基于不同排放情景的洞庭湖流域水资源演化研究
其他题名: Water Resources Evolution in Dongting Lake Basin Based on Different Emission Scenarios
作者: 李正最1; 周慧1; 张莉2; 毛德华3
刊名: 水文
ISSN: 1000-0852
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:3, 页码:695-702
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; RCPs情景 ; 水资源演化 ; 趋势 ; 洞庭湖流域
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; PCMDI ; climate change ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ; Representative Concentration Pathways ; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) ; water resources evolution ; trend ; Dongting Lake Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 流域水资源演化与气候变化和人类活动紧密相关,气候变化与人类活动的加剧极大地改变了流域水文循环。通过相似性和独立性分析,从CMIP5公开发布的47个气候模式中筛选出5个代表性气候模式,然后计算未来高、中、低3种不同排放情景下的气温和降水,构造符合研究区产汇流特性的水文模型,计算洞庭湖流域水资源量并分析其演化规律。结果表明:不论温室气体排放水平如何,洞庭湖流域水资源量在未来60a呈现增加态势,汛期水量增加概率加大,而在高排放情景下枯季水资源量表现为减少趋势;未来洞庭湖流域水资源的时程分配将更趋不均匀化,而温室气体的持续排放将使其变化加剧。
英文摘要: Emission level is expected to be significant impact on climate change,which has a close relationship with local water resources.Based on different green gas emission scenarios,five relatively independent global climate models were selected from 47 CMIP5 models to simulate the future climatic conditions.This paper calculated the future water resources with the data of chosen models by downscaling them to local projection and correcting the bias,and then applying to the hydrological model.The results show that the water resources in the Dongting Lake Basin are likely to grow in the future and distributed more unevenly.In 3 scenarios,water resources increase during flood season and decrease during dry season,and the total amount grow prominently.More green gas emission,more severe the uneven distribution.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154917
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.湖南省水文水资源勘测局, 长沙, 湖南 410007, 中国
2.山东省调水工程技术研究中心有限公司, 济南, 山东 250000, 中国
3.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙, 湖南 410081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李正最,周慧,张莉,等. 基于不同排放情景的洞庭湖流域水资源演化研究[J]. 水文,2018-01-01,38(3):695-702
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