globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6207238
论文题名:
黄河流域Budyko方程参数n演变规律及其归因研究
其他题名: Analysis of change and attribution of Budyko equation parameter n in Yellow River
作者: 王卫光1; 陆文君1; 邢万秋2; 李进兴1; 李长妮1
刊名: 水资源保护
ISSN: 1004-6933
出版年: 2018
卷: 34, 期:2, 页码:695-704
语种: 中文
中文关键词: Budyko方程参数n ; 移动窗口法 ; 多元逐步回归模型 ; 敏感性系数法 ; 贡献评估法 ; 黄河流域
英文关键词: Budyko equation parameter n ; moving window ; multiple stepwise regression (MSR) ; sensitive coefficient method ; contribution assessment method ; Yellow River
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 基于移动窗口法、多元逐步回归模型、敏感性系数法和贡献评估法,定量分析黄河流域Budyko水热耦合平衡方程中的参数n在黄河流域的变化规律及其与气候变化和人类活动的相关关系。结果表明,参数n在19562000年间呈现上升趋势,其变化与降水(P)、人口状况(P_(op))、生产总值(G_(GDP))和有效灌溉面积(A_(irr))最为相关。其中,参数n的变化对P最为敏感,敏感系数达到1.169,且P的变化抑制了参数n的增加(贡献率为- 20.2%);参数n对P_(op)、G_(GDP)和A_(irr)的敏感性系数分别为0.795、0.038和- 0.152,并随人类活动的加剧而上升,其中P_(op)的增加对参数n增加的贡献最大(128.7%)。
英文摘要: In the Yellow River,the Budyko equation parameter changes and its response to climate change and human activities were quantitatively analyzed based on the moving window,multiple stepwise regression (MSR), sensitive coefficient method and contribution assessment method. The results indicate that the Budyko equation parameter n increases during the period from 1956 to 2000 and the changes of the parameter are mostly relevant to P,P_(op),G_(GDP) and A_(irr). Wherein,the sensitive coefficient of P,which is the mostly sensitive to the Budyko equation parameter change,is 1.169 and the changes of P has a negative effect on the increase of the parameter n (contribution rate is-20.2%). In addition,the sensitive coefficients of P_(op),G_(GDP) and A_(irr) are 0.795,0.038 and-0.152,respectively. Increasing human activities have positive effects on the increment of the parameter n and the increase in P_(op) has the major contributions to the increment of the parameter n (128.7%).
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154922
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.河海大学
2.河海大学水文水资源学院, 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室
3., 南京
4.南京, 江苏
5.江苏 210098
6.210098, 中国
7.河海大学地球科学与工程学院, 南京, 江苏 211100, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王卫光,陆文君,邢万秋,等. 黄河流域Budyko方程参数n演变规律及其归因研究[J]. 水资源保护,2018-01-01,34(2):695-704
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