Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces that affect the watershed hydrological cycle and water resources sustainable utilization,and these two factors are considered in the calibrated MIKE SHE model of the North China Plain (NCP) to predict the hydrological cycle and water resources utilization during 2009 - 2028 based on eight designed scenarios. The results showed that: the groundwater levels at the end of predictive period under scenarios considering the South - to - North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) have greatly recovered with a groundwater storage recovery of 0.06 - 1.26 m; the fact that the total inflow was less than the total outflow during 2009 - 2028 will result in the aquifer storage depletion and groundwater unsustainable development,which can be alleviated under certain scenarios; climate change has a major impact on the aquifer storage: 5% reduction in precipitation will lead to 0.27 m reduction in aquifer storage,whereas 5% increase in precipitation will lead to 0.3 m increase in storage; the implementations of SNWDP and agricultural water conservation have more significant effects on groundwater head recovery and water shortage degree mitigation.