【Objective】 This paper studied the spatial variation characteristics of NDVI in Qinghai base on pixel unit,analyzed the response of vegetation NDVI to climate change and predicted the future trend of vegetation change to provide reference for ecological construction in Qinghai. [Method] MODIS13Q1/NDVI data of Qinghai from 2000 to 2015 were used to analyze NDVI trends through the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis with the Mann-Kendall test,and the Hurst index was used to evaluate the sustainability of NDVI trend.【Result】1) The vegetation NDVI in Qinghai increased from northwest to southeast. 2) NDVI showed an overall increasing trend in recent 16 years,with a growth rate of 1.5%/10 a. Dryland/grassland and savannah grassland experienced the highest growth rates of 2.7 %/10 a and 2.3 %/10 a. 3) In the 16 years,the improvement area of vegetation cover in Qinghai was significantly larger than the degraded area (17.87 %). Vegetation coverage area with significant improvement was 21.26%,that with slight improvement was 39.25%,that with slightly degradation was 15.75%,that with severe degradation was 2.12%, and that remained unchanged was 21.62%. 4) In the future,the vegetation covered area in Qinghai accounted for 62.23% of the total area,of which 38.01 % was continuously improved area and 24.22% was improved from degradation to improvement. The area with degradation trend was 18.30%,of which 7.74 % was persistent degradation and 10.56% was from improvement to degradation. The stable area was 8.43% and the uncertain area was 11.04%.【Conclusion】 The NDVI in Qinghai was affected by both climate and human activities,and most areas showed improving trend.