【Objective】It is very significant to ensure stable increase in grain production that the scientifical evaluation of the effect of climate change on rice in Jiangxi province. 【Method】In this paper,the characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of late rice photosynthetic potential productivity,light-temperature potential productivity,climatic potential productivity with the successive correction analysis,linear trend analysis and Manner-Kendall method were analyzed based on the meteorological data of 85 weather stations in 55 year and the growth period data in agricultural meteorological site,and then the late rice potentials for increasing production under the climate change combining the realistic productivity data were analyzed. 【Result】The spatial distribution of the photosynthetic productive potential in 1961 - 2014 was high in the east and low in the west in Jiangxi province,the light-temperature potential productivity distribution was high in the southeast and low in the northwest,and climatic potential productivity distribution was high in the north and low in the south. The late rice photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity in nearly fifty-five years indicated a trend of decline,and the descent rates were 534 and 465 kg·hm~(-2) (10 a)~(-1),respectively,however climatic potential productivity was rising with the rate of 189.7 kg·hm~(-2)(10 a)~(-1). The meteorological factor which affected on the late rice mostly was precipitation,and the second was temperature,but the effect of precipitation was reducing year by year. 【Conclusion】The late rice existed the potential for increasing production,which showed a downward trend,the high value of the increasing production potentials was in the south,and the low was concentrated in the north-central region. There would be urgently needed to develop science and technology and arrange reasonable agricultural planting structure in order to increase the utilization of climate resources and improve the actual production of late rice in the future.