globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6343724
论文题名:
地球工程对中国未来降雨时空分异格局的潜在影响(2010 - 2099)
其他题名: Potential Impacts of Geoengineering on the Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Future Rainfall in China from 2010 to 2099
作者: 孔锋1; 孙劭2; 王品3; 王一飞4
刊名: 灾害学
ISSN: 1000-811X
出版年: 2018
卷: 33, 期:4, 页码:72-81
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 地球工程 ; 降雨变化 ; 区域差异 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: RCP4.5 ; geoengineering ; RCP4.5 ; rainfall change ; regional difference ; climate change
WOS学科分类: MINERALOGY
WOS研究方向: Mineralogy
中文摘要: 《巴黎协定》确定的1.5℃和2℃温控目标下,全球减排压力剧增,因此地球工程温控手段被多次讨论。针对地球工程中讨论最多的太阳辐射管理,基于BNU- ESM模式的地球工程(G4实验)和非地球工程(RCP4.5)两种情景,以2010- 2099年中国日值降雨量数据对两种情景下的中国降雨量时空分布及其差异进行统计分析。结果表明: ①在时间序列上,地球工程有利于中国整体降雨量的增加。2010- 2099年和2020- 2069年两种情景下的中国降雨量呈增加趋势,且2010- 2099年地球工程情景下的降雨量增加趋势大于非地球工程,而2020- 2069年两种情景下变化趋势的相差幅度不大。2070- 2099年,地球工程实施结束后,地球工程情景下的降雨量呈增加趋势,而非地球工程呈减少趋势;七大地理分区的降雨量变化趋势在地球工程情景下高于非地球工程。②在空间格局上,不同研究时段在两种情景下的中国降雨量空间分布相似,仅面积分布有所不同。地球工程实施期间多数地区降雨量减少,地球工程结束后的2070- 2099年降雨量明显显著。③2010- 2099年地球工程情景下的降雨量呈增加趋势的面积多于非地球工程,尤其是2070- 2099年地球工程实施结束后中国降雨量增加区域明显增多。降雨量波动特征在地球工程情景下相比非地球工程整体有所减小,地球工程情景下的中国降雨年际变化相对稳定。
英文摘要: The pressure of global emission reduction increases sharply under the temperature control targets of 1.5 C and 2 C set by the Paris Agreement. In view of solar radiation management,which is most discussed in geoengineering, the spatial-temporal distribution and difference of precipitation in China during 2010-2099 were statistically analyzed based on the BNU-ESM geoengineering (G4 experiment) and non-geoengineering (RCP4.5) scenarios. The results show that: (1) geoengineering is beneficial to the increase of China's total rainfall over time series. The precipitation of China in 2010-2099 and 2020-2069 scenarios showed an increasing trend,and the increasing trend of precipitation in 2010-2099 scenarios under geoengineering scenarios was greater than that under non-geoengineering scenarios. However,there was little difference between the two scenarios in 2020-2069. In 2070-2099,after the implementation of geo-engineering,the precipitation under geo-engineering scenarios increased,but not geo-engineering scenarios decreased. The precipitation variation trend of seven geographic zones was higher than that under non-geo-engineering scenarios. (2) In the spatial pattern,the spatial distribution of precipitation in China was similar in different research periods under the two scenarios,but the area distribution was different. During the implementation of geo-engineering,the precipitation in most areas decreased,and the precipitation in 2070-2099 after the completion of geo-engineering was significant. (3) The area of increasing precipitation under the geoengineering scenario in 2010-2099 was larger than that of non-geoengineering scenario,especially after the implementation of geoengineering in 2070-2099,the area of increasing precipitation in China increased significantly. The characteristics of rainfall fluctuation in geo-engineering scenarios are smaller than that in non-geo-engineering scenarios,and the annual variation of rainfall in China is relatively stable under geo-engineering scenarios.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155131
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.清华大学公共管理学院
2.中国气象局气象干部培训学院
3.中亚大气科学研究中心,
4.,
5.乌鲁木齐, 北京
6.北京
7.新疆 100084
8.100081
9.830002, 中国
10.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
11.杭州师范大学理学院, 杭州, 浙江 311121, 中国
12.中国气象局气象干部培训学院, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
孔锋,孙劭,王品,等. 地球工程对中国未来降雨时空分异格局的潜在影响(2010 - 2099)[J]. 灾害学,2018-01-01,33(4):72-81
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