气候变化对农业水热资源影响巨大,评估其潜在影响可为制定未来区域农业发展策略提供科学依据.利用河西走廊13个地面气象站的观测资料,对1960-2014年间河西走廊地区农业水热资源时空变化特征与趋势进行了分析,结果表明:近55 a来,河西走廊≥0℃起始日期以1.8 d /10 a的趋势提前,作物生长期内平均温度、≥10℃积温和生长期持续天数呈显著升高的趋势,其气候倾向率分别为0.30 ℃ /10 a、77.1 ℃ /10 a和2.8 d /10 a,≥10℃积温超过3 000℃和生长期天数超过170 d的地区已经扩展到疏勒河流域和黑河流域大部以及石羊河流域的北部;生长期日照时数也呈显著增加的趋势,其气候倾向率达9.0 h /10 a;作物生长期内降水量、参考作物蒸散量以及湿润指数的变化趋势不显著,区域干旱状况并未得到缓解.总体上看,河西走廊地区农业气候资源变化以气温升高、热量改善、日照增加为主要特点,这一变化有利于满足作物生长发育所需的热量条件,为扩大粮油作物种植面积和进行粮饲作物周年复种提供了可能.
英文摘要:
Climate change has significant impact on agricultural water thermal resources. Evaluating its potential influence could provide scientific basis for formulating future regional agricultural development strategy. Based on the weather data of 13 meteorological stations in Hexi Corridor,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and trends of agro-climatic resources from 1960-2014. The results indicated that during the recent 55 a,the day of mean temperature over 0℃ advanced at the rate of 1.8 d /10 a,whereas mean temperature during crop growing period ≥10℃ accumulated temperature,and length of growing season showed a significant increasing trend, with the rates of 0.30 ℃ /10 a,77.1 ℃ /10 a,and 2.8 d /10 a,respectively. The area with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature >3 000℃ and length of growing season >170 d had extended to the most part of the Shule River Basin, Heihe River Basin,and northern part of the Shiyang River Basin. The sunshine hour also showed an increased trend with a rate of 9.0 h /10 a. However,the precipitation,reference evapotranspiration,and humidity index did not show remarkable changing trend during crop growing period. The regional drought condition was unrelieved. In general,the changes of agro-climatic resources in Hexi Corridor were characterized asincreased air temperature,improved heat condition,and enhanced sunshine hour. These changes were in favor of satisfying the heat conditions needed by crop growth and development,and providing possibility to expand the planting area of grain and oil crops,and to apply sequential cropping of cereal and forage crops in Hexi Corridor.