globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6193131
论文题名:
中国碳排放峰值及其倒逼机制研究的发展动态
其他题名: Development trend of the study on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanisms
作者: 王锋
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2018
卷: 28, 期:2, 页码:760-765
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 碳排放峰值 ; 倒逼机制 ; 气候变化 ; 趋势预测
英文关键词: carbon emissions peak ; forcing mechanisms ; climate change ; forecast of trend
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 为了进一步应对气候变化,中国提出到2030年左右实现二氧化碳排放达到峰值。碳排放峰值目标的设定,必然会对经济转型产生一种倒逼机制。倒逼机制是中国在改革开放实践中成功实施的一种逆向运作的经济治理机制。探索碳排放峰值目标的倒逼机制的基本理论问题,研究如何在实践中完善和运用这种新型倒逼机制,对中国经济的低碳转型和可持续发展具有重要的理论参考价值。本文按照从碳排放历史研究到碳排放趋势预测,从峰值实现路径研究到峰值约束研究的逻辑顺序,综述了近年来国内外有关中国碳排放及其峰值的研究现状和发展动态,并回顾了有关倒逼机制的基础理论研究和特定案例研究。结果表明:首先,现有研究都以顺向思维方式,预测碳排放峰值和研究实现峰值的路径,但没有文献以逆向思维方式,揭示峰值目标的倒逼机制;其次,现有研究虽然也提出了碳排放峰值的倒逼机制,但该倒逼机制目前在理论上仍处于一个黑箱之中,还没有文献曾试图打开这个黑箱,以揭示该机制的基本特征和运行机制;最后,现有研究也模拟了碳排放峰值目标约束对经济产生的影响,但没有系统性地研究在碳排放峰值目标倒逼机制下的经济转型路径,也没有深入探索在转型过程中采取的一系列政策措施的减排绩效和经济影响。基于该领域的现有成果和发展动态,本文提出了可进一步拓展的研究方向:要以逆向思维方式,从可持续发展的长期战略视角,在理论上解析和构建碳排放峰值目标的倒逼机制,系统性地研究在这种倒逼机制下的经济转型路径,并通过构建大型政策评估模型,量化评估在转型过程中采取的一系列政策措施的减排绩效和经济影响。
英文摘要: In order to further cope with climate change,China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030. Carbon emissions peak target (CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanisms on China's economic transition. Forcing mechanism is one of conversely operating economic mechanisms which have been successfully implemented in China's economic reform and opening-up. It has important theoretical value for China's low-carbon transition and sustainable development in order to explore the basic theory in the forcing mechanisms of CEPT and study how to complete and use the new forcing mechanisms. According to the logic fromresearch on carbon emission history'toforecast of carbon emission',and fromresearch on paths of realizing peak'toresearch on peak constraint',this paper reviews the current status and development trend of studies on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,the paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanisms. The conclusions show that,firstly, existing studies have predicted the peak value of carbon emissions and the ways to achieve peak values in a straight forward way of thinking,but no literature has revealed the forcing mechanisms of the CEPT in an adverse way of thinking. Secondly,although the existing research puts forward the forcing mechanisms of CEPT,it is still a black-box theory. No literature have tried to open the black box and to reveal the basic characteristics and operating mechanism. Thirdly,the existing literature simulates the effects of the CEPT constraint on China's economy,but they do not systematically study the paths of economic transition in the forcing mechanisms of CEPT,and do not explore the emission reduction performance and economic effects of some policies and measures taken in the process of economic transition. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field,the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. Firstly,from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development,we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanisms of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Secondly,economic transition paths under the forcing mechanisms should be systematically studied. Thirdly,by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model,the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155323
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 西安交通大学经济与金融学院, 西安, 陕西 710061, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王锋. 中国碳排放峰值及其倒逼机制研究的发展动态[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2018-01-01,28(2):760-765
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